Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Sept 29 - Oct 3)
Token2049 (Oct 1-2)
While U.S. jobs data towards the end of the week could affect markets to some extent, the spotlight this week is Token2049. Billed as the biggest crypto conference of the year, investors will be watching closely as projects and organizations tend to save big announcements for this week to make a splash.
Random Musing This Week
Aster: DEX + Yield-Collateral Innovation
Aster is a decentralized exchange platform that combines spot and perpetual trading across multiple blockchains, including BNB Chain, Ethereum, Solana, and Arbitrum. Its defining feature is the ability to use yield-bearing collateral such as liquid staking tokens or yield-generating stablecoins as margin while trading. This means that collateral continues earning yield even while it is locked in for trading purposes, a feature that significantly enhances capital efficiency. The platform caters to both casual and professional users, offering a simplified “one-click” leverage mode with protection against front-running, as well as a professional trading environment with advanced orderbook tools such as grid strategies and hidden orders. Cross-chain functionality reduces the need for manual bridging, creating a smoother trading experience for users who want access to liquidity on different networks.
Since Launch
Since its debut, Aster has gained significant attention, partly due to the advisory role taken on by Binance founder Changpeng Zhao. Trading volumes on the platform have been strong, and Aster has shown early signs of becoming a challenger to Hyperliquid in the increasingly competitive market for decentralized perpetuals.
However, some have raised questions about the tokens’ long-term valuation sustainability. Some users have voiced concerns about performance and user interface issues, particularly under heavy trading conditions. There is also concern regarding the depth of liquidity and capital sustainability over time, as some believe the current rush is just temporary as farmers are speculating on a potential airdrop in the near future.
Nevertheless, since its token generation event mid-September, ASTER has surged from a few pennies per token to a peak near $2.40. The token has since retraced some of that exuberance, stabilizing in a range near $1.80 to $1.90.
For Aster’s impressive early token price surge to hold over the long term, the project will need to prove more than just speculative hype. Sustained growth will depend on showing that its cross-chain trading engine can consistently deliver high performance without latency or execution issues, even during periods of heavy market activity. Equally important will be expanding deep and sticky liquidity across its supported chains so that trading volumes are organic rather than incentive-driven. The platform must also demonstrate that its yield-bearing collateral model is both safe and scalable, offering genuine capital efficiency without exposing users to hidden risks. If Aster can combine reliable infrastructure with a robust user experience and clear differentiation from established perpetual DEX competitors, then its token price gains are more likely to transform into durable market value rather than a short-lived spike.
Recap of Top Stories (Sep 22 – Sep 26)
Interesting
Tether Looking to Raise Up to $20B, Bringing its Valuation to $500B
Commentary: Tether is looking to raise between $15 billion and $20 billion for about a 3% stake in the company through a private placement. The raise would bring its valuation to around $500 billion, putting it in the same league as OpenAI and SpaceX. Tether would be issuing new equity, and Cantor Fitzgerald is acting as lead adviser.
The report of the raise comes as Tether recently reported $4.9 billion in net profit in the second quarter and held over $162.5 billion in reserves against $157.1 billion in liabilities. It also holds about $8.9 billion in bitcoin in its reserves.
South Korean Crypto Exchange Upbit to Be Acquired by Naver
Commentary: Upbit is reportedly to be acquired by internet giant Naver. The deal would bring Upbit’s parent Dunamu under the umbrella of Naver Financial, making Dunamu a full subsidiary of Naver’s financial arm.
Upbit is one of the largest crypto exchanges in SK, while Naver operates multiple internet based services in South Korea, including Naver Pay. The deal is likely to be a stock swap deal with Naver Financial issuing new shares in the crypto exchange for Dunamu’s current shares.
Kraken Raises $500M in Funding Round Valuing Crypto Exchange at $15B
Commentary: Kraken closed a $500 million funding round, setting the stage for a long-awaited IPO now expected in 2026. The round reportedly did not feature a lead investor and was closed on Kraken’s terms valuing the firm at $15 billion.
Founded in 2011, Kraken had reportedly raised only $27 million in venture capital funding until this year. It generated $411 million in revenue and nearly $80 million in post-Ebitda earnings in the second quarter.
Hong Kong Monetary Authority Warns Against Unregulated Stablecoin Issuance
Commentary: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority warned investors it has not approved any stablecoin issuers, labeling the marketing of such products as illegal. The statement came after Hong Kong-based AnchorX announced the introduction of AxCNH, a stablecoin pegged to the offshore Chinese yuan. The company said it held a license from Kazakhstan’s Astana Financial Services Authority and that the coin would support cross-border payments and tokenized real-world assets. HKMA said no entity had been licensed to issue stablecoins in the city and advised the public to remain cautious.
This marks the first test of Hong Kong’s new stablecoin rules, which came into effect in August. Under the regime, stablecoin issuers must meet stringent standards around licensing, capital, and governance.
Nine European Banks Join Forces to Issue MiCA-Compliant Euro Stablecoin
Commentary: Nine major european banks have joined forces to launch a euro-denominated stablecoin regulated under the trading block’s Markets in Crypto Assets regime. The banking giants involved are: ING, Banca Sella, KBC, Danske Bank, DekaBank, UniCredit, SEB, CaixaBank and Raiffeisen Bank International.
The nine bank-backed digital payment instrument, leveraging blockchain technology, aims to become a trusted European payment standard in the digital ecosystem. The initiative will provide a real European alternative to the US-dominated stablecoin market, contributing to Europe’s strategic autonomy in payments.
Crypto Miner TeraWulf to Raise $3B in Google-Backed Debt Deal to Expand Data Centers
Commentary: Crypto mining firm TeraWulf is planning to raise $3 billion in debt to expand its data center operations in a deal supported by Google. The company is working with Morgan Stanley to arrange the funding, which could launch as early as next month through high-yield bonds or leveraged loans.
Google, which recently increased its backstop for TeraWulf to $3.2 billion, now holds a 14% stake in the company. That support helped AI cloud platform Fluidstack expand its use of a TeraWulf-run data center in New York in August.
Upcoming Market Events
October 1-2 - Token 2049 Singapore
October 3 - Jobs Report
October 15 - CPI
October 29 - U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision
October 31 - CME Expiry