Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Sept 22 - Sept 26)
U.S. Inflation Data (PCE Price Index)
The spotlight this week is Friday’s release of the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. With the central bank recently beginning a rate-cut cycle, investors will be watching closely to see if price pressures continue to ease. A softer reading could reinforce expectations for further cuts, while any upside surprise may challenge the Fed’s dovish stance and rattle markets.
Random Musing This Week
Floodgates Open for US Crypto ETFs
The SEC has approved generic listing standards for commodity-based trust shares, significantly accelerating the path for crypto ETFs, including spot products for the first time.
Key Points
Faster Approvals: The maximum timeline for ETF launches is cut from 240 → 75 days, giving over 70 pending crypto ETF applications a much faster route to market.
Spot ETF Eligibility: New standards create three pathways—ISG membership, 6-month futures history on a CFTC-regulated DCM, or an existing ETF with ≥40% exposure—opening the door to tokens beyond BTC and ETH.
Coinbase Derivatives’ Role: Coinbase acquired FairX and now operates a CFTC-regulated DCM. It has listed futures on a wide range of altcoins (ADA, AVAX, DOT, DOGE, SHIB, LINK, etc.), all trading for more than 6 months. Because these contracts satisfy the DCM criterion, Coinbase has effectively created the regulatory foundation that makes spot ETFs for many altcoins possible.
Historic Precedent: When similar standards were applied to traditional ETFs, the pace of launches more than tripled, highlighting the potential for a comparable wave in crypto markets.
Outlook
We should expect a surge of both spot and futures-based crypto ETFs in the near term. Coinbase’s futures lineup gives it a strong head start, while the CME may need to expand coverage to catch up. Issuers are also likely to refile under the new framework to accelerate approval timelines.
Recap of Top Stories (Sep 15 – Sep 19)
Interesting
White House eyes other candidates for CFTC chair as Quintenz confirmation stalls
Commentary: The White House is considering alternative candidates to chair the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as Brian Quintenz's confirmation continues to stall, Bloomberg reported Thursday citing sources familiar with the matter.
According to the report, the Trump administration has been actively discussing the subject in recent weeks. Among those being considered are officials with expertise in cryptocurrency regulation, the report said. As crypto regulation in the U.S. take shape, the CFTC is expected to play a central role in crypto oversight, with the Congress actively developing legislation to expand the agency's regulatory powers over digital assets.
Ethereum Fusaka upgrade tentatively set for Dec. 3 mainnet launch after testnet rollouts
Commentary: Ethereum core developers announced plans to launch the Fusaka upgrade on the mainnet on Dec. 3. This tentative date was announced in the latest ACDC #165 developer call.
The upgrade will be activated on the Holesky testnet on Oct. 1, the Sepolia testnet on Oct. 14, and the Hoodi testnet on Oct. 28 before its final mainnet launch. Kim added that developers will reconfirm exact dates, times and epoch numbers in the next few days.
Dogecoin ETF DOJE begins trading
Commentary: An exchange-traded fund tracking the price of the largest memecoin, Dogecoin, is officially on the market. The REX-Osprey DOGE ETF, under the ticker symbol DOJE, began trading on Thursday, according to a press release from both firms.
REX Shares and Osprey Funds, separate companies that collaborate to issue ETFs focused mostly on crypto exposure, filed a prospectus last week for the fund, along with other crypto-related ETFs. The fund will invest and hold DOGE and may also invest in shares of other crypto ETFs and in derivatives, according to that prospectus.
SEC approves new exchange listing standards fast-tracking crypto ETF listings
Commentary: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved on an "accelerated basis" listing standards for crypto exchange-traded funds, quickly setting the stage for those products to be ready for public trading.
"The Commission finds good cause to approve the Proposals prior to the 30th day after the date of publication of notice of the Exchanges’ amended filings in the Federal Register," the agency said. "The amended filings clarify the definitions set forth in, and the requirements of, the proposed generic listing standards."
One in four public bitcoin treasury firms now trading below their BTC holdings value
Commentary: The bitcoin treasury boom is losing steam, with one in four public BTC treasury companies now trading at market caps below the value of the bitcoin they hold, according to K33.
Issuing new shares with a market-to-net-asset-value of below one is dilutive, curbing the capacity of some corporate buyers to raise more capital to keep adding to their treasuries. "When firms trade below NAV, issuing shares becomes dilutive because it gives away more ownership (via undervalued shares) than the value it receives in return (BTC)," K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde explained in a new report.
Google launches AI agent-to-agent payments protocol with stablecoin support
Commentary: Google has released an open-source payments standard to let AI agents send and receive money, including U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins, as tech giants push toward machine-to-machine commerce.
Developed with Coinbase and in consultation with more than 60 firms, including Salesforce, American Express, and Etsy, the move extends Google’s April framework for agent interoperability into payments.
PayPal to expand P2P crypto payments with new Links feature
Commentary: PayPal Holdings (ticker PYPL) is introducing a new peer-to-peer payments feature with plans to soon expand support to crypto transactions. The updated payment option will enable users to send Bitcoin, Ethereum, and PayPal’s native PYUSD stablecoin, among other tokens, to "a rapidly growing number of digital wallets," according to an announcement on Monday.
Beyond creating yet another pathway to send and receive digital assets, the new system, called PayPal Links, is particularly relevant for crypto users because the P2P payments will be tax-exempt when transferring funds between known parties on PayPal and its Venmo subsidiary.
Upcoming Market Events
September 23-24 - Korea Blockchain Week
September 26 - CME Expiry
October 1-2 - Token 2049 Singapore
October 29 - U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision