Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Sept 1 - Sept 5)
U.S. PMI and Employment #s (Sept 4-5)
The start of the month and the beginning of autumn will be crucial in terms of being a data-heavy week, with PMIs from around the globe, CPI from the EU and labor numbers out of the U.S. to end the week. All of the above could sway markets as we lead up to the Sept 17th decision by the Fed on whether to cut rates, with the current target rate probability sitting at 87.5%, as of time of writing.
Random Musing This Week
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Bitcoin finds itself at at a crucial juncture to start the week, rebounding off of a support level at $108k to where it sits now at just under $110k. While the strong bounce to start the week is a positive sign, BTC price still sits below all 3 major daily moving averages (10, 50, 100-day) after reversing course since hitting a new all-time high of $124k in mid-August.
In retrospect, there were several signals that could have been used to forecast this current downtrend. First, a sell 9 TD Sequential signal happened to appear on the day before the all-time high was hit, coinciding with a bearish divergence on the RSI as we marked a higher high from the previous high hit in mid-July. Both could have been interpreted as showing signs of exhaustion in the uptrend that began in April of this year. Furthermore, aside from technical signals, we are getting reports of BTC ETF flows drying up and a few whale wallets selling BTC in large clips, which only adds more confirmation to the aforementioned bullish trend exhaustion.
Nevertheless, there is still hope that this $108k support level could hold. Along with a potential trendline that dates back to late April that coincides with the level, we also can see a Buy 9 TD signal registering. But should BTC price not be able to overcome both the 10 and 50-day moving averages (orange, blue), a break of $108k could see BTC fall back to the previous pivot level of $100-102k, which would only lead to more speculation that the current bull market is over for the time-being and that we might be in store for choppy price action at best and a bear market at worse moving into 2026.
Recap of Top Stories (Aug 25 – Aug 29)
Interesting
US regulator opens pathway for Americans to trade on offshore crypto exchanges
Commentary: The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a US financial regulator, announced on Thursday that offshore crypto exchanges now have a pathway to legally serve US-based clients by registering under the Foreign Board of Trade (FBOT) framework.
“Starting now, the CFTC welcomes back Americans who want to trade efficiently and safely under CFTC regulations, and opens up US markets to the rest of the world. It’s just another example of how the CFTC will continue to deliver wins for President Trump as part of our crypto sprint.”
US government begins distributing key macroeconomic data on public blockchains, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana
Commentary: The U.S. government has begun distributing macroeconomic data on public blockchains, following Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick teasing the initiative's launch earlier this week.
In partnership with oracle protocols Chainlink and Pyth Network, the U.S. Department of Commerce has brought six key indicators from the Bureau of Economic Analysis — including real GDP, the PCE Price Index, and real final sales to private domestic purchasers — onchain for the first time, enabling use cases in DeFi, prediction markets, and tokenized assets.
Google Cloud is developing its own blockchain for payments, currently in private testnet
Commentary: Google Cloud is building its own blockchain network, named Google Cloud Universal Ledger (GCUL), for the financial sector, according to Rich Widmann, Google Cloud's Web3 Head of Strategy, who announced this on Tuesday.
Widmann wrote in a LinkedIn post that GCUL aims to provide financial institutions with a "performant, credibly neutral" blockchain platform that enables Python-based smart contracts.
Trump Jr. joins Polymarket board as prediction market eyes US comeback
Commentary: Prediction market Polymarket has added Donald Trump Jr. to its advisory board after receiving a strategic investment from 1789 Capital, which describes itself as a politically aligned vehicle backing companies it sees advancing “American exceptionalism.”
The companies did not reveal financial terms, but Axios estimated the investment at “double-digit millions of dollars." Trump Jr. became a partner in the fund in 2024. In a Tuesday statement, he said that "Polymarket cuts through media spin and so-called 'expert' opinion by letting people bet on what they actually believe will happen in the world."
Pantera Capital seeks $1.25 billion for Solana treasury firm
Commentary: Pantera Capital is aiming to raise up to $1.25 billion to establish a U.S.-listed Solana treasury company, according to a report from The Information. The digital asset fund manager is reportedly planning to convert a publicly-traded company into a Solana treasury firm, tentatively named Solana Co., by raising an initial sum of $500 million, and then another $750 million through warrant issuance.
Galaxy, Jump and Multicoin seek $1 billion to create Solana treasury firm
Commentary: Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin Capital are in discussions seeking to raise $1 billion to jointly establish a digital asset treasury firm to accumulate Solana, according to Bloomberg.
The plan is to acquire a publicly traded company and turn it into a digital asset treasury company, where the transaction is expected to close in early September, according to the report. The trio of firms has reportedly enlisted Cantor Fitzgerald LP as lead banker for the deal.
Upcoming Market Events
September 4-5 - U.S. Initial Jobless Claims / Unemployment Rate
September 17 - U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision
September 23-24 - Korea Blockchain Week
October 1-2 - Token 2049 Singapore