Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Oct 6 - Oct 10)
Data Delays and Fed Sensitivity Ahead
The looming U.S. government shutdown could delay key economic reports this week, adding uncertainty to macro signals and leaving markets more sensitive to Fed speakers and policy commentary.
Random Musing This Week
Perp DEX Wars: Hyperliquid and Aster
The onchain derivatives battlefield is heating up again. Hyperliquid’s dominance - built on its own Layer-1 orderbook and CEX-like performance - is now being challenged by Aster, the project we highlighted last week, a newly rebranded project from APX Finance backed by CZ. Aster’s aggressive airdrop campaign has sent its 24-hour trading volume soaring to $77B, far eclipsing Hyperliquid’s $5B.
Yet behind the explosive numbers lies a familiar problem. Most of Aster’s activity appears incentive-driven, by airdrop hunters and transactional incentives. Its open interest remains $1-1.5B, versus Hyperliquid’s $10B – a reminder that high volume doesn’t always mean real conviction.
Adding to the controversy, DefiLlama co-founder 0xngmi recently revealed that Aster’s perpetual trading data showed near-perfect correlation with Binance’s volumes, raising wash-trading concerns. Following this revelation, DefiLlama delisted Aster’s perp data over data-integrity issues, and the $ASTER token dropped about 10% soon after. The incident reignited a long-standing debate over the sustainability of incentive-driven liquidity models - where traders pursue rewards rather than conviction.
Meanwhile, Hyperliquid continues to deepen its moat through technical execution and ecosystem stickiness, distributing “Hypurr NFTs” to loyal users and expanding listings without sacrificing latency. The contrast highlights two diverging strategies: incentive-driven expansion vs infrastructure-driven retention.
As capital flows back into perpetual DEXs, sustainability — not short-term volume — is emerging as the true differentiator. Aster may have drawn the market’s eye for now, yet Hyperliquid maintains the credibility and depth that define durable liquidity. Ultimately, it’s not about who grows fastest, but who endures longest.
Recap of Top Stories (Sep 29 – Oct 3)
Interesting
Samsung expands Coinbase partnership with Galaxy Wallet tie-up in US
Commentary: Samsung is expanding its partnership with Coinbase to let U.S. Galaxy smartphone users fund their Coinbase accounts with Samsung Pay, while also pushing a Coinbase One promotion through Samsung Wallet.
The integration, first announced in July, adds Samsung Pay as a payment option for Coinbase customers. The companies say it could reach more than 75 million Galaxy owners, with international rollout expected in the coming months.
Walmart-owned OnePay to launch bitcoin, ether trading and custody on mobile later this year
Commentary: Walmart-backed fintech platform OnePay is reportedly preparing to launch cryptocurrency trading and custody in its mobile banking app later this year, starting with bitcoin and ether.
OnePay’s crypto rollout is expected to let users convert crypto to cash in-app to spend on Walmart purchases or pay down card balances, according to CNBC. The report added that crypto infrastructure startup ZeroHash would be key to embedding crypto support within OnePay’s platform.
Ripple’s David Schwartz announces departure as CTO by end of year
Commentary: Ripple’s Chief Technology Officer, David Schwartz, announced his departure after more than a decade at the technology company. Schwartz, who was instrumental in coding the ledger, the blockchain associated with Ripple, said he would be leaving at the end of this year, in a post on X on Tuesday.
Although he’s leaving his post as CTO, Schwartz isn’t cutting ties completely. He revealed he will continue to be involved with Ripple by joining the company’s board of directors and occasionally stopping by the office.
World Liberty Financial plans to tokenize real-world assets and pair with USD1 stablecoin
Commentary: Trump-backed crypto project World Liberty Financial is exploring different types of assets and tokenized bills, CEO Zack Witkoff said during the Token2049 conference in Singapore on Wednesday.
“We’ve not only thought about it, we’re actively working on it,” Witkoff said. “I think commodities are a really interesting area for us, whether it be oil, gas, things like cotton, timber, all of those things, frankly, should be traded on chain.”
Visa pilots stablecoin payments for businesses sending money abroad
Commentary: Global payments giant Visa has launched a pilot to test stablecoins for cross-border payments, providing businesses with a new way to transfer money abroad more quickly.
The pilot will allow businesses, including banks and remittance providers, to pre-fund Visa Direct with stablecoins instead of fiat currency. Visa treats those stablecoins as “money in the bank” or available balances for payouts, enabling businesses to send money abroad without locking up large sums of cash days in advance.
Robinhood eyes overseas prediction market launch as CEO touts metrics
Commentary: Robinhood is exploring how it might launch its prediction markets business in markets outside the United States, according to Bloomberg. The trading platform has spoken to overseas regulators including the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority, to better understand how the product could be regulated, Bloomberg also reported. In the U.S. prediction markets event contracts are treated as futures while in other territories they are considered more akin to gambling.
Hyperliquid unveils 4,600 Hypurr NFTs, floor price surges past $60,000
Commentary: Hyperliquid launched its Hypurr non-fungible token collection today on the HyperEVM mainnet, generating a notable floor price of $68,900 and millions in early trading volume.
The collection, comprising 4,600 NFTs, commemorates the supporters of the decentralized perpetuals trading platform and its deployment of HyperEVM, the general programmability interface to Hyperliquid’s Layer 1 chain.
Upcoming Market Events
October 15 - U.S. CPI
October 29 - U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision
October 31 - CME Expiry