Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Oct 27 - Oct 31)
U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision (October 29)
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a rate cut this week, with markets focusing on Chair Powell’s tone for signals about the pace and scale of future easing. Investors will also watch whether the Fed hints at an early end to quantitative tightening, which could further support risk assets.
Random Musing This Week
Weekly Market Recap
This week’s market stabilized, with Bitcoin and Ethereum regaining footing after last week’s turbulence. Still, sentiment remains cautious as all eyes turn to the upcoming Trump–Xi summit, which could reset the macro tone heading into November.
1) Trump–Xi meeting
Markets have been closely reacting to headlines surrounding the planned meeting between Trump and Xi. If the two leaders deliver a cordial encounter—complete with a handshake and clear path forward on tariffs and export controls—it would likely trigger a near-term risk-on response across global assets, including crypto. Conversely, if talks collapse or rhetoric turns hostile, the market could swiftly reprice for renewed trade tension and policy uncertainty.
2) CPI below expectations, but impact muted
The latest U.S. CPI print came in below consensus, sparking an initial wave of optimism. However, the rally faded as attention reverted to policy risks and lingering inflation trends. Although the softer data support the case for rate cuts, the probability of a December cut has edged down from roughly 97% to 90%, reflecting concern that inflation’s trajectory is rising again from early-year lows. In short, while the inflation data offered relief, it was not enough to shift the macro narrative—especially with the Trump–Xi outcome and the timing of the quantitative tightening pause still in play.
3) JP Morgan’s Bitcoin-collateral announcement
JP Morgan’s decision to allow institutional clients to pledge Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral marks a milestone both symbolic and practical for digital assets. It signals a growing recognition of major cryptocurrencies as legitimate forms of financial collateral within traditional finance, extending their role beyond speculative trading into functional balance-sheet assets. The move also broadens the potential use of BTC and ETH in credit and financing structures, reducing the perceived risk premium that has long limited institutional participation. While immediate inflows may be limited, this step lays important groundwork for deeper integration of digital assets into the global financial system.
Recap of Top Stories (Oct 20 – Oct 24)
Interesting
JPMorgan to let institutional clients pledge BTC and ETH as loan collateral by year-end
Commentary: JPMorgan Chase plans to permit institutional clients to use bitcoin and ether holdings as collateral for loans by the end of the year, as Wall Street pushes deeper into cryptocurrencies.
The program will be offered globally and will rely on a third-party custodian to safeguard the pledged assets, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The change could make liquidity against long-held crypto positions easier to access for institutions that prefer not to sell.
Trump defends pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao: ‘Don’t believe I’ve ever met him, but he had a lot of support’
Commentary: U.S. President Donald Trump addressed his pardon of Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, claiming the former Binance CEO was “persecuted” by the Biden administration.
“I do pardon a lot of people,” Trump told reporters on Thursday afternoon. “He was recommended by a lot of people. Are you talking about the crypto person? A lot of people say he wasn’t guilty of anything.”
SEC, CFTC target end-of-year milestones for crypto oversight amid government shutdown
Commentary: Federal agencies are teeing up cryptocurrency regulatory milestones for the end of 2025. In a post on Tuesday on X, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Acting Chair Pham said the agency is prioritizing crypto trading and “tokenized collateral” by the end of 2025. “Listed spot crypto trading and tokenized collateral by the end of the year,” Pham said in a post on X.
Polymarket eyes fresh funding at up to $15 billion valuation amid surging prediction market interest
Commentary: Polymarket is in early-stage talks with investors and looking to raise additional funding at a valuation of between $12 billion and $15 billion, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.
Polymarket alone has gone from a $1.2 billion valuation following a $150 million round in June, led by Peter Thiel’s Founder’s Fund, to a $9 billion post-money valution earlier this month after it was revealed that NYSE parent firm Intercontinental Exchange had agreed to invest up to $2 billion. That latter deal made Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan one of the youngest self-made billionaires.
Prime broker FalconX to buy 21Shares amid crypto M&A spree
Commentary: FalconX, a U.S.-based institutional crypto prime broker, has agreed to acquire 21Shares, one of the largest managers of exchange-traded products for digital assets. Wednesday’s deal is poised to combine 21Shares’ distribution and ETP expertise with FalconX’s trading and prime-brokerage infrastructure as the pair looks to launch derivative-focused and structured crypto funds, fielding products that go beyond plain-vanilla spot ETPs, The Wall Street Journal reported. Financial terms were not disclosed at the time of writing.
Coinbase is buying crypto investment platform Echo for $375 million
Commentary: Coinbase Global has struck a deal to acquire Echo, an onchain private investment platform, for $375 million, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, citing company executives. The WSJ report said Coinbase is using a combination of cash and stocks to fund the acquisition, with details to be revealed later today.
The Echo founder said it will remain a standalone platform under its current brand for now, but plans to integrate Echo’s public token sale product Sonar into Coinbase.
Waller signals Fed’s shift toward embracing crypto, proposes ‘skinny master account’ for payment innovators
Commentary: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller says the central bank plan is entering a new era and cryptocurrency will “no longer be on the fringes” while rolling out a new prototype to expand central bank services.
“I wanted to send a message that this is a new era for the Federal Reserve in payments — the defi industry is not viewed with suspicion or scorn,” Waller said on Tuesday during the Fed’s Payments Innovation Conference. “Rather, today, you are welcomed to the conversation on the future of payments in the United States and on our home field — something that would have been unimaginable a few years ago.”
Upcoming Market Events
October 29 - U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision
October 31 - CME Expiry
November 13 - U.S. CPI