Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Oct 13 - Oct 17)
U.S. CPI
For the week ahead, economic data will likely take a step into the background as markets will be more focused on Trump’s next move. However, we will still have to keep an eye on CPI releases mid-week and employment numbers at the end of the week from the U.S.
Random Musing This Week
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
The weekend’s turmoil seems relatively over for the time-being, as markets recovered quite quickly once the initial shock of the Trump announcement was over. Also, in a move that should have surprised no one, markets rebounding coincided with messages from the Trump administration that a potential walk-back of the tariffs would occur. As long as no further surprise announcements occur in the next week, we should see further upside in BTC as well as the broader crypto market.
Although the liquidations over the weekend reached historic proportions, structurally, BTC has managed to maintain its ascending trendline, albeit for the brief wick. We will still need to see if the recovery can reach higher levels, as we’re still underneath the 50 and 100-day moving averages (purple and blue) that are holding down BTC’s price currently between the $115-116k range. If we’re not able to surpass these levels, we could see a short-term reversal. If this is the case, we’ll want to see the $112k trendline (dotted blue line) hold.
Nevertheless, RSI has reset closer to oversold territory and we have other gauges indicating that market froth has been removed, such as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index which was firmly in Fear territory as of this morning. The weekend flush felt like a reset the market needed. Despite the volatility, the cleanup is being viewed as a constructive reset in leverage. Analysts now see a healthier backdrop for accumulation, with reduced speculative pressure setting the stage for a more sustainable advance if key support levels hold.
In sum, while the weekend drop has knocked out some wind from our sails, Bitcoin still resides within a broader upward trajectory. If support holds and momentum rebounds, this dip may well represent an opportunity rather than a signal that the uptrend has ended.
Recap of Top Stories (Oct 6 – Oct 10)
Interesting
Biggest Crypto Liquidation Ever Sees $16B Longs Decimated Amid Market Chaos
Commentary: Crypto liquidations reached historic levels after the broader crypto market plunged hours after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports via a Truth Social post, which triggered a global risk-off wave and wiped out more than $16 billion in long positions. Trader anxiety that a cooling trade war was about to re-ignite sent a macro shock rippling through crypto, triggering one of the largest long declines in prices of BTC, ETH and other digital assets seen all year.
Crypto’s total market cap dropped to $3.87 trillion, and roughly $16.7 billion of the $19.1 billion in liquidations came from longs. Friday’s crash saw crypto’s worst liquidation in terms of pure volume, seeing over 10 times as much dollar value liquidated as the crashes when FTX collapsed in 2022 or when global markets melted down during the early COVID lockdowns.
New York Stock Exchange Owner to Acquire $2B Stake in Polymarket
Commentary: Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, is set to invest $2 billion in crypto-powered prediction market Polymarket. The deal values the platform at $9 billion. ICE’s investment could lend regulatory credibility to Polymarket’s efforts to return to the U.S. market.
Founded in 2020, Polymarket lets users place bets on future events, including politics, economics, companies’ performances, and sports. While popular abroad, the platform has been off-limits to U.S. users since a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Polymarket, according to DeFiLlama data, saw $1.5 billion in volume last month and has $164 million in total value locked. The company, according to TheTie data, has raised a total of $300 million in capital to date from investors that include Peter Thiel’s venture capital firm, Founders Fund..
Morgan Stanley Opens Crypto Access to All Clients Amid Wall Street Shift Toward Digital Assets
Commentary: Morgan Stanley is reportedly widening access to cryptocurrency investments for its wealth management clients in a move that signals a broader shift among traditionally cautious Wall Street institutions. The bank will allow its financial advisors to offer crypto investments to all clients — regardless of risk tolerance or net worth — and across all account types, including retirement plans, according to the report. Previously, the option was limited to clients with at least $1.5 million in assets, an aggressive risk appetite and a taxable brokerage account.
The decision marks a major expansion for Morgan Stanley’s $8.2 trillion wealth and investment management business and suggests a growing acceptance of crypto as a long-term asset class for mainstream investors. The move also underscores the pressure legacy firms face as crypto vehicles become more widely available.
Citi Joins Visa in Backing Stablecoin Payments Company BVNK
Commentary: The venture arm of the Citigroup made a strategic investment in stablecoin payments platform BVNK. Citi Ventures joins Visa in backing BVNK, after the payments giant made its own strategic investment in the company in May this year. The companies have not disclosed the size of the investment.
The growth of the stablecoin sector as been one of the standout trends in the digital asset industry over the last year, helped in part by the introduction of formal regulatory regimes in major jurisdictions such as the U.S. and Hong Kong. BVNK processes over $20 billion in payments annually and counts Worldpay, Flywire and dLocal among its clients.
UK Lifts Retail Ban on Crypto ETNs, Paving Way for Investments From Pensions, ISAs
Commentary: The U.K. officially lifted its multi-year retail ban on crypto exchange-traded notes, saying the digital asset market has matured enough for individuals to invest through regulated products, even if investors will have to wait a little longer to add them to their portfolios. In a policy update, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) confirmed that retail investors can now buy crypto ETNs listed on FCA-recognized exchanges.
While the ban officially lifted last week, there is a delay before retail investors will be able to add cETNs to their portfolios, which reports say is down to the FCA only starting to accept prospectuses for prospective products on Sept. 25. The U.K. tax authority, HM Revenue & Customs, said in a policy paper that crypto ETNs can be held in stocks and shares Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs) and registered pension schemes — allowing investors to earn tax-free returns within those accounts.
Ethereum’s Fusaka Upgrade Could Cut Node Costs, Ease Adoption
Commentary: Ethereum developers are preparing for the network’s second major upgrade this year, known as Fusaka, set to go live at the end of November or beginning of December, pending final testnet results. Fusaka consists of two simultaneous upgrades to Ethereum’s consensus and execution layers, respectively.
Fusaka includes 12 major code changes that together aim to boost data capacity, lower costs and streamline validator operations. One of the most significant additions is EIP-7594, or PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling), a system that allows Ethereum validators to verify data availability by sampling small pieces of it instead of downloading everything. That change enables the network to handle far more rollup data (“blobs”) per block, paving the way for cheaper Layer 2 transactions and greater throughput without compromising decentralization. The other 11 changes in Fusaka are smaller but still important; things like fine-tuning how transaction fees are calculated, setting clearer limits on block size and adding new tools for developers that make Ethereum apps run faster and work better with standard internet security systems.
YZi Labs Introduces $1B Fund for BNB Chain Projects
Commentary: YZi Labs, formerly Binance Labs, introduced a $1 billion fund for projects building on the BNB Chain. The investment company is targeting BNB-based projects in areas such as trading, real-world assets, artificial intelligence, decentralized finance and wallets.
YZI Labs said it wants the BNB ecosystem to form a backbone of “democratized access and ownership, AI to enhance human potential and biotech to improve quality of life.”
Upcoming Market Events
October 15 - U.S. CPI
October 29 - U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision
October 31 - CME Expiry