Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Nov 17 - Nov 21)
FOMC Minutes Release - Nov 19
Although the U.S. government shutdown now looks to be behind us, we’re still dealing with a volatile week in crypto markets as investors grapple with declining prices across the board. We’ll be watching for the release of the first batch of government economic data post-shutdown and the publication of the Fed’s meeting minutes, which should give further indications on the potential for what to expect in December. Fed officials have voiced caution about further rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut falling from a near-certainty earlier in October to below 50% today.
Random Musing This Week
Bitcoin Technical Analysis Update
The weakness that began in October for crypto markets is extending into a prolonged downturn, with prices dropping again this morning, albeit not as far as last week’s drop. With the $100k support level now firmly lost, BTC seems to be testing the $92-93k level that played a pivotal level in the run-up that coincided with the election bull market of late 2024-early 2025.
We’re noticing a similar price structure developing, where BTC price rose drastically and created two peaks, only for bullish sentiment exhaustion that resulted in a 30+% decline. Should the same decline occur again, we could see one last downturn leg that takes BTC price as low as $86k. However, if that is as far as BTC price falls, that would still leave BTC within a bullish structure. RSI (bottom indicator) also seems to line up, as the indicator is showing oversold conditions. However, there is still some room to go before it reaches extreme oversold territory.
Although sentiment is currently very bearish, we do see an opportunity to obtain heavily discounted Bitcoin in the coming weeks. We’ll be watching the aforementioned support levels along with RSI ideally forming a bullish divergence, a technical analysis signal that occurs when price reaches a lower low, but the RSI indicator makes a higher low. This pattern suggests that while price is still in a downtrend, the underlying selling momentum is weakening and buying pressure is increasing. It happened in Mar-Apr of 2025 and often foreshadows a potential trend reversal to the upside.
Recap of Top Stories (Nov 10 - Nov 14)
Interesting
Uniswap Proposes Sweeping ‘UNIfication’ With UNI Burn and Protocol Fee Overhaul
Commentary: Uniswap Labs and Uniswap Foundation proposed a new sweeping governance proposal called “UNIfication,” which aims to align incentives across the Uniswap ecosystem and position the protocol as the default exchange for tokenized assets. It would do this by activating protocol fees, burning millions of UNI tokens and consolidating the project’s key teams under a single growth strategy.
Under the proposal, the protocol would redirect a portion of trading fees to a UNI burn mechanism and fees from Uniswap’s layer-2 network, Unichain, would also flow into the burn. Other features like Protocol Fee Discount Auctions (PFDA) would allow traders to bid for fee discounts, internalizing MEV (maximal extractable value) and further fueling the burn process. In addition, Uniswap v4 would evolve into an onchain aggregator, collecting fees from external liquidity sources through new “hooks.” Uniswap Labs also proposed a retroactive burn of 100 million UNI from the treasury, which the team claims would equal the amount that might have been burned if protocol fees had been active since launch.
Bybit Said to Be in Talks to Buy South Korean Exchange Korbit
Commentary: Cryptocurrency exchange Bybit is allegedly in talks to acquire Korbit, one of the oldest crypto exchanges in South Korea.
A softening of stance by regulators in the country, such as the Korea Financial Intelligence Unit (KoFIU) and Financial Services Commission (FSC), is allowing for more foreign firms to buy local exchanges. Binance recently completed the acquisition of South Korean crypto exchange Gopax, marking its return to the country market after clearing regulatory hurdles spanning a two-year period.
Harvard Endowment Takes Rare Leap Into Bitcoin With $443M Bet on BlackRock’s IBIT
Commentary: Harvard University’s endowment has disclosed a $443 million stake in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, making the fund’s largest known equity position a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund. According to the university’s latest 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the investment fund held 6.8 million shares of IBIT as of the third quarter of 2025. The position accounts for just over 20% of its reported U.S.-listed public equity holdings.
For context, Harvard’s entire endowment exceeds $55 billion, meaning the IBIT investment represents less than 1% of total assets. Still, it ranks Harvard among the top 20 holders of the fund.
Singapore’s Central Bank to Trial Tokenized Bills, Introduce Stablecoin Laws
Commentary: The Monetary Authority of Singapore plans to trial tokenized bills settled with wholesale central bank digital currency as the next phase of integrating blockchain-based finance into its economy. The Singapore central bank is also preparing draft legislation for a stablecoin regulatory regime, according to MAS managing director Chia Der Jiun.
Der Jiun described how tokenized bank liabilities benefit from current regulatory requirements that “underpin value stability and singleness of money,” which the central bank plans to trial through tokenized government debt backed by wholesale CBDC.
Czech Central Bank Becomes First Central Bank to Buy Bitcoin
Commentary: The Czech National Bank announced the creation of a $1 million test portfolio that includes bitcoin, a USD stablecoin, and a tokenized deposit.
Approved by the bank board, the pilot is designed to give the central bank hands-on experience with blockchain-based assets, which it says could reshape how payments and financial systems operate in the future. The total amount invested will not be actively increased, said the bank, and the acquisition was made outside of the bank’s existing international reserves.
JPMorgan Rolls Out JPM Coin Leveraging Coinbase’s Base
Commentary: JPMorgan Chase has officially launched JPM Coin, a digital deposit token for institutional clients, signaling a major step forward as banks deepen their involvement in digital assets. The digital coin represents dollar deposits held at JPMorgan, enabling near-instantaneous transfers using Coinbase’s public blockchain, Base.
JPMorgan plans to eventually deploy the token on other blockchains and give clients’ clients access to JPM Coin and expand the token to multiple currencies pending regulatory approval. The coin will even be accepted as collateral on Coinbase, highlighting its growing role in crypto markets.
Upcoming Market Events
November 19 - FOMC Minute Release
November 28 - CME Expiry
December 3 - Ethereum Fusaka Mainnet Upgrade
December 10 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision