Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Nov 10 - Nov 14)
Fed Speakers
With most economic data halted by the government shutdown, Fed officials have become the market’s primary compass this week. Remarks from Vice Chair Barr, New York Fed President Williams, Governor Waller, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will likely steer expectations around growth and policy in the absence of fresh indicators.
Random Musing This Week
U.S. Government Shutdown
Prediction markets (Polymarket) currently price November 12-15 as the most likely end date for the U.S. government shutdown (see chart). The shutdown has already set a new record for length. The Senate convened over the weekend to push a stopgap through, so the timing of the restart is this week’s main macro driver.
In the short term, the shutdown is shaping the narrative and keeping investors focused on Washington rather than the economy itself. But the moment the government reopens, a wave of delayed economic data will be released in rapid succession—employment reports, retail sales, inflation components, and other indicators that have been stuck in the queue. Once those prints hit, the market’s attention is likely to shift sharply from “political noise” back to “hard data,” with price action becoming more decisively data-driven.
Recap of Top Stories (Nov 3 – Nov 7)
Interesting
Acting CFTC chair confirms push to launch leveraged spot crypto trading on regulated exchanges
Commentary: Caroline Pham, acting chair of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), confirmed a report from CoinDesk that the agency is in direct talks with regulated exchanges to launch spot crypto trading, including leveraged offerings, as soon as next month.
According to the report, Pham has held talks with CFTC-regulated designated contracts markets (DCMs) exchanges, a list that includes finance giants CME, Cboe Futures Exchange, and ICE Futures along with crypto-native firms like Coinbase Derivatives and prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket US, about launching spot crypto trading products involving margin, leverage, and financing.
Bybit and Backed partner to bring tokenized Nvidia and Strategy stocks to Mantle
Commentary: Cryptocurrency exchange Bybit and Backed Finance have partnered in an effort to bring tokenized stocks to the Layer 2 Mantle blockchain, the companies said on Friday.
By allowing traders to withdraw and deposit funds via Mantle, users will be able to “move assets between Bybit and Mantle efficiently and securely, accelerating user onboarding and driving liquidity to the blockchain,” the companies said.
Google Finance to roll out Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets data in search results
Commentary: As prediction markets continue to hit the mainstream, the leading platforms just announced a major partnership. Google said prediction markets data from both Polymarket and Kalshi will roll out over the coming weeks, starting with Labs users, “so you can ask questions about future market events and harness the wisdom of the crowds.” Users will be able to access current market probabilities directly from the search box and see how they’ve changed over time.
Coinbase urges Treasury to keep GENIUS Act rules aligned with congressional intent
Commentary: Crypto exchange Coinbase Global has urged the U.S. Treasury Department to keep its forthcoming rules for the GENIUS Act tightly aligned with congressional intent.
In a detailed response to the Treasury, Coinbase noted that Treasury should avoid imposing requirements beyond what the statute explicitly commands, warning that overreach could stifle innovation and undermine the law’s goal of making the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.”
Ripple raises $500 million at $40 billion valuation in round led by Fortress, Citadel
Commentary: Ripple has announced a $500 million strategic investment round led by Fortress Investment Group and Citadel Securities, valuing the blockchain payments company at a staggering $40 billion.
The raise, which also included investments from Pantera Capital, Galaxy Digital, Brevan Howard, and Marshall Wace, follows Ripple’s recent $1 billion tender offer at the same valuation and caps what the firm described as its strongest year on record, according to an announcement on Wednesday.
DeFi protocol Balancer potentially exploited as onchain data shows millions in outflows
Commentary: DeFi protocol Balancer appears to have suffered an exploit, with an estimated $128.6 million in assets drained from its vaults, according to blockchain security firm Peckshield.
Mikko Ohtamaa, CEO and co-founder of Trading Strategy, noted that early analysis points to a faulty smart contract check as the likely root cause. He stated via an X thread that not all Balancer versions appear affected, but that losses could climb above $100 million if older V2 forks share the same vulnerability. PeckShield said the attack remains ongoing across multiple chains where Balancer is deployed.
Upcoming Market Events
November 13 - U.S. CPI
November 14 - U.S. PPI
November 19 - FOMC Minute Release
December 3 - Ethereum Fusaka Mainnet Upgrade