Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (May 26 - May 31)
May 30 - U.S. PCE Price Index (Apr)
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, closely watched in light of recent tariff effects. March data showed slight cooling.
Random Musing This Week (May 26 - May 31)
BTC Strength
Bitcoin showed outstanding strength last week, outperforming other asset classes by a clear margin. To assess whether the market is overheating, we reviewed key indicators:
MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value)
The current MVRV stands at 2.36, below the historically overheated threshold of 3.7. However, it's important to account for the declining amplitude of MVRV peaks over time, which indicates maturing market behavior.
Open Interest Weighted Funding Rate
Funding rates typically rise in overheated conditions, but current levels remain neutral, not significantly elevated. This suggests leveraged long positioning is not extreme.
Price Performance Since Cycle Low
The current 2022+ cycle has shown a more measured climb compared to past cycles. While amplitude has decreased across cycles, there still appears to be meaningful upside potential ahead in this cycle, especially considering the current structural support.
Recap of Top Stories (May 19 – May 23)
Interesting
Sui DEX Cetus hit by suspected hack: Over $200M in potential losses
Commentary: Cetus, a decentralized exchange (DEX) built on the Sui blockchain, is suspected to have been hit by a massive exploit that may have drained more than $200 million worth of digital assets.
The team behind Extractor, an onchain monitoring tool developed by crypto cybersecurity company Hacken, confirmed that “at least $63m was already bridged to Ethereum, 20k ETH was just transferred to a fresh wallet” in a single transaction.
Senators plan to amend GENIUS Act to address Trump family's stablecoin
Commentary: Though a majority of members of the US Senate voted to advance a bill to regulate payment stablecoins on May 20, high-ranking Democrats are planning to propose an amendment to the legislation to address President Donald Trump’s connections to the cryptocurrency industry.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senators Elizabeth Warren and Jeff Merkley will file an amendment to the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, or GENIUS Act, to block a US president from profiting from stablecoins. The proposed amendment would come after 18 Democrats sided with Republicans in the Senate in voting to advance the bill on May 20 after it failed a procedural vote on May 8.
Bitcoin hits new all-time high as risk assets rebound from April lows
Commentary: Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of around $109,400 Wednesday morning, continuing its rebound alongside broader risk assets after hitting a recent low of $76,320 on April 8 — the same day equities bottomed amid fears of a U.S.-initiated tariff war.
The previous record for the world’s largest cryptocurrency was roughly $109,358, set in January on Coinbase as President Donald Trump returned to the White House.
Texas House passes strategic Bitcoin reserve bill
Commentary: The Texas House of Representatives has passed the third reading of SB 21, a bill that seeks to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the state. The bill passed in a 101-42 vote and will now go to Texas Governor Greg Abbott to either sign into law or veto.
SB 21, authored by state Senator Charles Schwertner, establishes a Bitcoin reserve that is managed by the state’s comptroller. The legislation allows the comptroller to invest in any cryptocurrency with a market cap above $500 billion over the previous 12-month period. Currently, the only cryptocurrency fitting the requirement is Bitcoin.
Hong Kong passes stablecoin bill, set to open licensing by year-end
Commentary: Hong Kong’s Legislative Council passed the Stablecoin Bill, paving the way for a regulated framework that could position the region as a global leader in digital assets and Web3 development.
“It is expected that by the end of this year, major institutions will be able to apply to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to become licensed stablecoin issuers,” Ng said. Ng said Hong Kong is welcoming “global enterprises and institutions interested in issuing stablecoins to apply in Hong Kong.”
Robinhood proposes SEC rules for tokenized real-world assets
Commentary: Robinhood submitted a 42-page proposal to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), calling for a national framework to regulate tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). The brokerage is seeking to modernize financial infrastructure by making tokenized assets legally equivalent to their traditional counterparts and enabling compliant onchain settlement, Forbes reported on May 20.
In the proposal, Robinhood also revealed plans for creating the Real World Asset Exchange (RRE), a trading platform offering offchain trade matching and onchain settlement for efficiency and transparency.
Jamie Dimon says JPMorgan will allow clients to buy Bitcoin, but firm will not custody it
Commentary: Longtime Bitcoin critic Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, said the world's largest bank will allow clients to buy the world's largest cryptocurrency — but it will not keep custody.
Over the years, Dimon has said that Bitcoin has no value, and he even referred to it as a Ponzi scheme this past January. He reiterated Monday at a JPMorgan Chase investor day event that he is still not a fan of Bitcoin, according to multiple reports.
Bybit enables USDT-paired equities trading in Gold & FX expansion
Commentary: Dubai-based crypto exchange Bybit has expanded its Gold & FX product suite by adding equities trading, allowing users to trade shares of 78 companies — including Coinbase (COIN) and the “Magnificent 7” — using USDT, the stablecoin issued by Tether, the company announced Monday.
The new feature is part of Bybit Gold & FX, a section of the platform that lets users trade gold, foreign exchange, and other commodities. Bybit said its stock trading feature is built on a contract for difference (CFD) model. CFDs let traders speculate on the price movements of assets without owning the underlying securities, with profits or losses settled based on the difference between entry and exit prices.
Senate votes to move forward on landmark stablecoin legislation
Commentary: In a second take, U.S. senators voted on Monday night to move forward with monumental legislation to regulate stablecoins. Lawmakers voted 66-32 to invoke cloture — a procedural move that clears the way for further debate — on the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, or GENIUS Act.
The Senate bill would require stablecoins to be fully backed by U.S. dollars or similarly liquid assets, mandate annual audits for issuers with more than $50 billion in market capitalization, and add language around foreign issuance.
Coinbase hit with wave of lawsuits over customer data breaches
Commentary: Coinbase has been hit with a flood of lawsuits after it recently disclosed its user data was breached, with users accusing the crypto exchange of mishandling the incident.
At least six lawsuits were filed against Coinbase between May 15 and May 16, which all made various claims that the exchange failed to keep stringent security protocols to protect user data and handled the data breach aftermath poorly.
Upcoming Market Events
May 30 - BTC CME May (BTCK25) Options Expiry
June 11 - U.S. CPI (May)
June 17 - U.S. Retail Sales (May)
June 18 - U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision