Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Mar 9 - Mar 13)
Core CPI / Initial Jobless Claims / Core PCE - Mar 11-13
While the above data prints will be crucial to this week’s market condition, the real focus will be on the Iran war, with the big question being just how much longer it will last. The danger exists if this war continues on for months, which is already not being taken well by traditional markets. We’ll need to see if things de-escalate quickly.
Random Musing This Week
Bottom Watch: Bitcoin Consolidates as Macro Sets the Stage for the Next Move
Bitcoin continues to trade in a broad consolidation following the sharp capitulation move in early February, with the market spending the past several weeks oscillating within a relatively well defined band between $64,000 support and $68,500 resistance. This type of prolonged compression suggests the market is still digesting the prior liquidation event rather than establishing a new directional trend.
The most notable move over the past week was the failed breakout attempt toward $73,000. After briefly reclaiming momentum and pushing above the upper boundary of the consolidation range, Bitcoin quickly reversed and fell back below resistance, reinforcing $73,000 as the first major overhead supply zone. This level previously acted as structural support before the February breakdown and now appears to be functioning as resistance, indicating that a meaningful amount of trapped supply likely remains in that region. Until price can reclaim and hold above this level, the broader recovery narrative remains tentative.
From a structural standpoint, the market continues to respect the lower boundary near $64,000, which has acted as the primary support level during the consolidation phase. Multiple tests of this zone have been absorbed, suggesting that buyers remain active there. The repeated defense of this level strengthens the case that the February flush into the $60,000 to $62,000 region represented a significant liquidity event and potential intermediate cycle low. However, consolidation alone does not confirm a new uptrend. Markets often spend extended periods building a base before the next sustained move emerges.
Momentum indicators also reflect the current equilibrium. The Relative Strength Index has drifted back toward the mid range after recovering from the deeply oversold conditions that accompanied the February selloff. This normalization is typical of a corrective phase following a capitulation event. In practical terms, it means that the market has largely worked off the extreme selling pressure but has not yet generated the type of bullish momentum typically associated with sustained trend reversals.
Looking ahead, the most important levels remain clearly defined. On the upside, $68,500 is the immediate pivot, followed by the more significant resistance zones at $73,000 and $83,000. A sustained break above $73,000 would mark the first meaningful structural improvement in market conditions and increase the probability that Bitcoin is transitioning from consolidation toward recovery. Conversely, failure to reclaim the upper range combined with a break below $64,000 would signal that the consolidation has resolved to the downside and could open the door for another test of the $60,000 to $62,000 support cluster.
For now, Bitcoin appears to be in the middle of a post capitulation consolidation phase, where volatility compresses and the market gradually determines whether the February low represents a durable floor or simply a temporary pause within a broader corrective structure. The resolution of the current range, particularly around the $64,000 to $68,500 corridor, will likely determine the direction of the next meaningful move.
Recap of Top Stories (Mar 2 - Mar 6)
Interesting
New York Stock Exchange owner values crypto exchange OKX at $25 billion in new partnership
Commentary: Global trading giant Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) began a strategic partnership with cryptocurrency trading firm OKX to introduce tokenized stocks and crypto futures products.
ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, also made a strategic investment valuing the San Jose, California-based company at $25 billion. The deal will see ICE license OKX’s spot crypto prices for crypto futures products, and OKX offer ICE futures and tokenized equities, the companies said on Thursday.
Kraken becomes first crypto company to secure Fed master account access
Commentary: Kraken has secured a Federal Reserve “master account,” giving its banking arm direct access to the Fed’s core payment systems and making it the first crypto firm to operate on the same rails as traditional financial institutions.
The account provides direct access to Fedwire, a major interbank payment network that processes trillions of dollars in transfers each day. Direct access changes that flow as the firm can now settle payments itself, which may speed up deposits and withdrawals for large traders and institutional clients.
Morgan Stanley taps Coinbase and BNY for custody in proposed Bitcoin ETF
Commentary: Morgan Stanley (MS) has filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) a prospectus outlining the structure of the proposed Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust.
The fund plans to use Coinbase Custody (COIN) and the Bank of New York Mellon (BNY) to safeguard its bitcoin holdings. The ETF itself will be structured as a passive vehicle designed to track the price of bitcoin by holding the cryptocurrency directly rather than using derivatives or leverage.
CFTC chief Selig to clear path for U.S. perpetual futures in coming weeks
Commentary: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Mike Selig, and his agency will soon provide guidance on how that business should be handled.
Selig’s agency is “working towards getting professional futures, true professional futures here in the U.S. within the next month or so,” One of the things the two are pursuing are “innovation exceptions” to allow for crypto experimentation without fear of regulatory crackdown.
Visa and Bridge plan stablecoin-linked card expansion to over 100 countries
Commentary: Visa and Stripe-owned stablecoin firm Bridge have expanded globally the stablecoin-linked card issuance product unveiled last year.
Bridge-enabled stablecoin-linked cards are now live in 18 countries, using crypto platforms like Phantom and MetaMask, with planned expansion to over 100 countries across Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East by end of year. Expanding our work with Bridge gives us one more way to bring the speed, transparency and programmability of stablecoins directly into the settlement process.
Commentary: The company shared with CoinDesk on Wednesday a press release that outlines a major expansion of Ripple Payments which turns the platform into a full-stack infrastructure layer for fiat and stablecoin money movement.
The result is that a fintech doing cross-border payouts no longer needs one provider for custody, another for foreign exchange, a third for stablecoin liquidity, and a fourth for local payout rails. Meanwhile, Ripple said the platform has now processed more than $100 billion in total volume.
Upcoming Market Events
March 12 - CPI Release
March 19 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision