Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Mar 23 - Mar 27)
Strait of Hormuz
The week ahead will be all about the Iran war developments, and whether some kind of de-escalation can be negotiated soon. Continuation of this conflict is a lose-lose situation for both sides, so the world hopes for a solution to be found quickly. Data is no longer relevant for markets it seems.
Random Musing This Week
Bottom Watch: The Watch Continues
The past week has introduced the first meaningful challenge to Bitcoin’s recovery structure since the February low. As shown in the updated chart, price has broken down, losing the mid-range pivot around $68,500 and testing the bottom of the rising channel. This marks a shift from controlled recovery into early signs of structural weakness, with price now trading back toward the lower boundary of the broader range near $67,000.
The key development here is the loss of trend consistency. For several weeks, Bitcoin had been forming higher lows within a well-defined upward channel, signaling steady accumulation. That structure has now been disrupted. The rejection near the $74,000–$75,000 region, followed by a series of lower highs and the recent breakdown, suggests that the prior move higher may have been a corrective rebound rather than the start of a sustained trend reversal.
From a support perspective, the market is now approaching a critical zone. The $64,000–$67,000 range represents the next major demand cluster, aligning with prior consolidation, local lows, and the lower boundary of the broader structure. A clean hold of this region would keep the broader bottoming process intact, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin is still building a base following the February capitulation. However, a decisive break below this zone would significantly weaken the structure and open the door for a retest of the $60,000–$62,000 region, which remains the ultimate structural support from the initial flush.
Momentum is also beginning to reflect this shift. RSI has rolled over from mid-range levels and is now trending lower, indicating that buying pressure has faded and that sellers are regaining short-term control. Unlike the February move, however, momentum is not yet in deeply oversold territory, suggesting there may still be room for further downside before another exhaustion phase is reached.
In terms of structure, the current price action increasingly resembles a failed Wave B rebound, where the recovery rally stalls below major resistance and transitions into the next leg lower. The inability to reclaim and hold above $73,000, combined with the breakdown below $68,500, supports this interpretation. If this scenario plays out, the market may be entering the early stages of a Wave C move, which historically tends to be more directional and can extend toward lower support zones.
That said, the broader bottoming thesis is not yet invalidated. Bitcoin is still trading above the key structural floor established in early February, and the current move can still be interpreted as part of a wider consolidation range. The coming sessions will be critical in determining whether this is a standard pullback within a base or the beginning of a deeper corrective phase.
Recap of Top Stories (Mar 16 - Mar 20)
Interesting
SEC approves Nasdaq’s move to support tokenized securities trading
Commentary: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved on Wednesday Nasdaq’s proposal to allow certain securities to trade in tokenized form, a significant milestone to integrate blockchain tech into U.S. equity markets.
Tokenized shares will trade alongside traditional shares on the same order book and at the same price. They will carry identical rights, use the same ticker and CUSIP and follow existing market rules. The process allows near-instant, around-the-clock trading with tokens tied to real-world assets.
U.S. regional banks building tokenized deposit network on ZKsync to rival stablecoins
Commentary: A group of U.S. regional banks is developing the Cari Network, a tokenized deposit platform built on ZKsync, a layer-2 network, as lenders seek a regulated path to modernize digital payments.
It’s designed to let banks turn customer deposits into digital tokens that can move instantly between institutions — without those funds ever leaving the banking system. Cari says its tokens will still represent regular bank deposits, meaning they stay on banks’ balance sheets and remain subject to existing regulations and FDIC insurance.
Senators say they’ve reached compromise on yield to advance crypto market bill
Commentary: The two U.S. senators negotiating a controversial provision in the crypto industry’s market structure bill have reportedly agreed on a compromise that could advance the industry’s top priority to the next stage in the Senate.
The lawmakers had worked toward an agreement that both protects innovation in this emerging technology as well as protects against the deposit flight concerns raised by many on both sides of the aisle.
Morgan Stanley sets MSBT ticker and $1 million seed capital for bitcoin ETF
Commentary: Morgan Stanley wants its planned spot bitcoin ETF to trade under the ticker MSBT when it debuts.
The filing also revealed key fund details, which include a 10,000-share creation unit and a planned $1 million seed investment. Morgan Stanley’s move underscores Wall Street’s growing push into crypto, as established banks and custodians work to make bitcoin more accessible to mainstream investors.
Bank of Korea adds two banks to digital won trials as real-world testing begins
Commentary: The Bank of Korea and nine commercial lenders began phase two of a digital won pilot, testing bank-issued deposit tokens backed by central bank infrastructure.
The institutions will now begin large-scale testing of the won-pegged deposit tokens built on a wholesale central bank digital currency (CBDC) layer. The government aims to begin disbursing subsidies in digital currency during the first half of this year.
ECB seeks experts to help integrate digital euro into ATMs, card payment terminals
Commentary: The European Central Bank (ECB) is looking for experts to help draft rules about how a digital euro would work in everyday payments.
One workstream will define how ATMs and point-of-sale terminals process digital euro payments, including how they support offline transactions and existing payment standards. If approved, the central bank has signaled a potential rollout by 2029.
Mastercard agrees to buy stablecoin platform BVNK for up to $1.8 billion
Commentary: Mastercard agreed to buy BVNK, a stablecoin infrastructure company, for as much as $1.8 billion as it looks to bolster its use of the digital assets for international payments.
By integrating BVNK’s technology, Mastercard aims to connect onchain payments to its global network, enabling use cases such as cross-border transfers, remittances and business-to-business payments. BVNK provides the technology to bridge traditional fiat systems with blockchain-based transactions, allowing businesses to move money in seconds across more than 130 countries.
Upcoming Market Events
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April 29 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision