Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Mar 16 - Mar 20)
US Interest Rate Decision - Mar 18
Markets will be watching the upcoming Fed rate decision this week, though expectations are low for any policy shift. The more immediate macro variable remains the developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the direction of global oil prices. A sharp move in oil would have broader implications for inflation expectations and financial conditions. Energy markets will be the more important macro signal to monitor in the near term.
Random Musing This Week
Bottom Watch: Bitcoin Pushes Higher Within Recovery Channel
Bitcoin continued its gradual recovery, climbing back toward the $74,000 region and testing levels not seen since the initial February breakdown. Price action has been forming a steady upward channel since the capitulation low near $60,000, with higher lows and higher highs gradually rebuilding market structure.
The recent push above $73,000 is technically significant. This level previously acted as major support before the February breakdown and has now been reclaimed after several weeks of consolidation below it. While this does not yet confirm a full structural reversal, it represents the first meaningful shift in market behavior since the selloff began. If momentum continues, the next technical objective sits near the upper boundary of the recovery channel around $76,000 to $77,000, where price may encounter the first major test of the rally.
Despite this constructive short term structure, overhead resistance remains substantial. Above the channel, the next major supply zones sit at $83,000. This level will likely act as a significant barrier if the recovery continues, as a large amount of previously trapped supply may look to exit positions into strength.
Momentum indicators reflect the improving price structure. The Relative Strength Index has been trending upward alongside price, remaining comfortably above the mid range and signaling strengthening short term momentum. Importantly, the recovery has developed through gradual accumulation rather than sharp short covering spikes, which tends to produce more durable rallies if sustained. Nevertheless, we are in overbought territory, which could coincide with recovery exhaustion happening at the aforementioned price points, so a correction to the downside could present itself in the next few weeks.
In the near term, the key levels remain well defined. $73,000 now acts as the first support level to watch, followed by $68,500, which previously served as the upper boundary of the consolidation range. As long as price remains above these zones, the current recovery structure remains intact. On the upside, a move toward $76,000 to $77,000 would represent a natural technical test of the channel resistance and may determine whether the rally pauses or continues higher.
Recap of Top Stories (Mar 9 - Mar 13)
Interesting
Tokenized assets exceed $25 billion after nearly quadrupling in a year
Commentary: Tokenized real-world assets, excluding stablecoins, have crossed $25 billion in onchain value, nearly quadrupling from roughly $6.4 billion a year earlier.
Despite the growth in supply, much of the activity reflects asset issuance rather than active trading. Whether those assets remain siloed in permissioned structures or begin integrating with the composable collateral, lending, and trading systems that define DeFi will likely determine whether tokenization scales as a parallel settlement layer for traditional finance or becomes something structurally different.
Tether invests in Ark Labs to make Bitcoin ready for stablecoins and payments
Commentary: Tether, the crypto firm behind the most popular stablecoin USDT, said Thursday it has invested in Ark Labs to bring programmable payments to the Bitcoin network.
Arkade acts as an execution layer that developers can use to build services such as payment networks, lending tools and digital asset platforms. Bitcoin is the most liquid digital asset in the world, but it has lacked the programmable infrastructure that financial applications require,” said CEO of Ark Labs.
BlackRock debuts staked ether ETF as demand grows for yield in crypto funds
Commentary: The fund marks the asset manager’s third crypto ETF and the first from BlackRock to incorporate staking.
ETHB will hold spot ether and stake a portion of those holdings on the Ethereum network, allowing investors to potentially earn rewards while benefiting from price movements. By incorporating staking, the ETF allows investors to keep the benefits of staking while gaining the operational advantages of an ETF structure.
Binance, PayPal and Ripple join Mastercard’s massive new push into blockchain payments
Commentary: Mastercard has launched a new Crypto Partner Program that brings together more than 85 companies from across the digital asset and payments industries, an effort to link blockchain technology more directly with the infrastructure that underpins global commerce.
Mastercard said the initiative focuses on practical use cases where digital assets are already gaining traction, including cross-border transfers, business-to-business payments and global payouts.
Nasdaq and Kraken are teaming up to let you trade tokenized stocks
Commentary: Nasdaq said it will work with crypto exchange Kraken to develop a system for issuing and trading tokenized versions of stocks and other exchange-traded products.
Under the plan, tokenized shares would give investors the same corporate governance rights as ordinary stockholders, including voting in proxy ballots and receiving dividends.
SEC’s advisory group backs tokenized securities push, outlines how to keep it safe
Commentary: A committee that advises the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recommended the agency move forward on a tokenized-securities policy that would allow traders to cut out the kind of go-between settlement that Wall Street investment firms have relied on for decades.
The traditional approach to stock trading features brokers, transfer agents and centralized settlement databases and can take a day or more to execute, but in placing that same stock on-chain, the delivery of the tokenized security and the payment can happen as a single transaction.
Upcoming Market Events
March 18 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision
March 21 - CME Options Expiry