Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (June 30 - July 5)
July 3 - U.S. employment report (June)
The June jobs report, due Friday, will be closely watched for signs of cooling in the labor market, with consensus expecting a slowdown in payroll growth. Any downside surprise in wage growth or headline employment could further bolster market expectations for a Fed rate cut as early as July.
Random Musing This Week
Fed Shift, Liquidity Lift
Markets are increasingly pricing in a liquidity-driven rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hitting new highs. Key catalysts include:
Speculation is rising that Trump may preemptively name Powell’s successor, potentially shifting the Fed’s tone well before Powell’s term ends in May 2026.
Notably, Bowman and Waller — traditionally among the most hawkish — now support a potential July cut. Both were part of the most dovish cohort in the June dot plot, projecting 75bps of easing in 2025.
The Fed’s SLR rule change allows major banks to hold more Treasuries, unlocking up to $5.5 trillion in balance sheet capacity.
As a result, forward-looking markets have adjusted rate cut expectations, as reflected in CME FedWatch data for the Dec ’25 FOMC:
While macro data remains mixed, two key upcoming releases will shape policy expectations: the CPI on July 15 and the PCE on July 22. With the Fed sharply divided and political pressure mounting, any downside surprise could accelerate the case for cuts ahead of the July 30 FOMC. At the same time, global M2 growth is reaccelerating. Historically, rising M2 has correlated strongly with Bitcoin price expansion, particularly during reflationary phases. Between internal Fed dissent, easing-oriented policy shifts, and rising global liquidity, macro tailwinds are quietly forming. If July’s inflation data reinforces this pivot, crypto assets — especially BTC — may stand to benefit as a direct proxy for reflation-driven flows.
Recap of Top Stories (June 23 – June 27)
Interesting
US judge denies Ripple, SEC joint request to reduce $125M penalty
Commentary: A US district court denied a joint motion from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple requesting an indicative ruling to reduce a $125 million civil penalty and reverse an order defining primary sales of XRP to institutional investors as securities transactions under Article 5 of the Securities Act.
An indicative ruling allows lower courts like the district court to issue orders for a case that is pending review in the higher appellate court system, subject to approval from the higher court.
Hong Kong reveals new stablecoin rules and tokenized bond plans
Commentary: Hong Kong’s latest digital asset blueprint places stablecoin regulation and asset tokenization at the heart of its strategy to become a global crypto and fintech hub. The policy statement, issued on Thursday, introduces a framework known as “LEAP,” targeting legal clarity, ecosystem expansion, real-world applications and talent development. It builds on the foundation laid by the government’s first policy statement in October 2022.
As part of the new framework, the government will implement a licensing regime for stablecoin issuers starting Aug. 1, which “will facilitate the development of real-world use cases.”
Metaplanet buys additional 1,234 bitcoin for $133 million, surpassing Tesla with 12,345 BTC in holdings
Commentary: Metaplanet, a Japanese investment firm, has purchased an additional 1,234 BTC for roughly $132.7 million, just a day after announcing a $515 million raise to fund its bitcoin treasury strategy.
Data from bitcointreasuries.net (which has yet to reflect Metaplanet's latest bitcoin purchase) shows that Metaplanet is becoming the seventh-largest publicly listed corporate bitcoin holder, surpassing Tesla, which holds 11,509 BTC.
Prediction market Kalshi raises $185M at $2B valuation
Commentary: Kalshi, a prediction market and competitor to Polymarket, has reportedly closed a $185 million funding round that values the company at $2 billion, indicating growing investor appetite for the emerging sector.
The round was led by crypto investment company Paradigm, with participation from venture capital companies Sequoia Capital, Multicoin Capital and other investors, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.
Japan proposes reclassifying crypto, paving way for ETFs and lower taxes
Commentary: Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) proposed a sweeping reclassification of cryptocurrencies that would clear a path for the launch of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and introduce a flat 20% tax on digital asset income.
The proposed reclassification could also shift Japan’s current progressive tax system, which taxes crypto gains at rates up to 55%, to a uniform 20%, mirroring the treatment of stocks. That change could make crypto investing more attractive to both retail and institutional players.
Polymarket to close a $200 million fundraise at a $1 billion valuation
Commentary: The decentralized prediction market developer Polymarket is "nearing a deal" for a $200 million fundraise, netting the firm a $1 billion valuation, The Information reports, citing people familiar with the matter.
Polymarket's $200 million financing would build off its $45 million Series B raise in May 2024, as well as $25 million in an unannounced Series A financing led by venture firm General Catalyst.
Anchorage adds DeFi capability for institutions with Uniswap wallet integration
Commentary: Anchorage Digital is adding decentralized finance (DeFi) capabilities to its Porto wallet, enabling institutions to make swaps and access liquidity through the product. The move brings another wallet option to institutional investors.
The DeFi capability is made possible through a Uniswap integration. Nathan McCauley, CEO and co-founder of Anchorage Digital, billed the integration as enabling institutions in DeFi to “move at crypto-native speed — without compromising security.”
OKX crypto exchange considering US IPO after local relaunch
Commentary: Major global cryptocurrency exchange OKX is reportedly considering a public listing in the United States following its relaunch in the country. OKX is weighing an initial public offering (IPO) in the US, with a potential listing on a local exchange, The Information reported on Sunday. OKX resumed operations in the US in April.
Texas governor signs bill adding Bitcoin to official reserves
Commentary: Texas Governor Greg Abbott has signed Senate Bill 21 (SB21), officially authorizing the creation of the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, a state-managed fund that will hold Bitcoin as part of the state’s long-term financial assets.
The newly established reserve operates independently of Texas’ general treasury system and aims to strengthen the state’s financial resilience while serving as a potential hedge against inflation, according to the bill text.
Upcoming Market Events
July 15 - U.S. CPI (June)
July 25 - BTC CME July (BTCN25) Options Expiry
July 30 - U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision