Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Jan 5 - Jan 9)
U.S. Dec 2025 Employment Situation report - Jan 9
The U.S. jobs report will likely be the main focus this week, as it could be the first big indication of rate cut bets in 2026. Currently, Fedwatch shows a 17% chance of a move at the late-January meeting but about a 50% probability of a quarter-point cut in March.
Random Musing This Week
Ethereum Updates
Ethereum hasn’t been discussed in quite some time on our weekly publication, but recent headlines have caught our attention. The latest updates show that the ecosystem is entering a new phase of development momentum, both at the protocol level and in on-chain activity.
2026 Upgrades
Earlier this month, Ethereum developers agreed on the name and timing of the network’s second major upgrade scheduled for 2026, settling on “Hegota” as the next milestone in the roadmap. Hegota will follow “Glamsterdam,” the next major upgrade expected to roll out in the first half of 2026, placing Hegota tentatively in the second half of the year. Together, these upgrades reflect a shift toward a faster and more consistent release cycle, moving away from the historical pattern of large annual upgrades.
Glamsterdam is expected to focus on further performance gains and decentralization, while Hegota is positioned as a longer term sustainability upgrade. Despite growing competition at the base layer level, Ethereum continues to dominate activity across stablecoins, real world assets, staking, yield protocols, and a wide range of application verticals that remain EVM compatible.
On-chain Activity
At the same time, Ethereum’s on-chain usage is accelerating. The number of daily transactions on the network recently surged to a new all-time high. According to The Block, the seven day moving average of Ethereum transactions reached 1.87 million on December 31, surpassing the prior peak of 1.61 million recorded in May 2021 during the height of the DeFi and NFT cycle, as well as the more recent high of 1.73 million set in August 2025. Active addresses also ended the year at their highest level since May 2021, reaching 728,904, while Ethereum recorded more than 270,000 new addresses in a single day, the largest increase since early 2018. Analysts attribute this surge in activity to a combination of protocol improvements and institutional engagement. Recent upgrades have materially reduced fees, improved scalability, and helped attract institutional participation through ETFs and real world asset tokenization.
2025 Developments
Ethereum underwent two major upgrades in 2025, Pectra and Fusaka, both of which focused on efficiency and scalability. Pectra expanded blob throughput, introduced account abstraction to improve wallet usability, and increased validator staking limits. Fusaka activated PeerDAS, allowing Ethereum to support higher data availability without increasing strain on nodes. These upgrades, alongside higher gas limits and improvements in zkEVM performance, have significantly lowered costs while reinforcing Ethereum’s rollup centric roadmap.
ETH Technical Analysis
Periods of muted price action often coincide with moments when large allocators quietly position for surprise upside. With protocol development accelerating and network usage reaching new highs, Ethereum may be entering one of those moments. But first, it must show that it can surpass the $3200 level firmly before any further upside can be imagined.
Recap of Top Stories (Dec 29 - Jan 02)
Interesting
Ethereum’s ‘Hegota’ upgrade slated for late 2026 as devs accelerate roadmap
Commentary: Ethereum developers earlier this month agreed on the name and rough timing of the network’s second major upgrade scheduled for 2026, settling on “Hegota” as the next milestone in the blockchain’s development roadmap.
Initial discussions around Hegota have focused on Verkle Trees, a newer data structure designed to help Ethereum nodes store and verify large amounts of data more efficiently. If implemented, Verkle Trees could significantly reduce hardware requirements for node operators, improving decentralization by making it easier for more participants to run nodes.
Grayscale files for first U.S. Bittensor ETP as decentralized AI gains momentum
Commentary: Grayscale is aiming to give U.S. investors exposure to Bittensor’s TAO, pushing decentralized artificial intelligence further into mainstream crypto markets.
The proposed Grayscale Bittensor Trust, expected to trade under the ticker GTAO, would hold TAO directly if approved, giving investors regulated access to one of the largest tokens associated with decentralized AI. While approval is not guaranteed, the filing underscores how asset managers are increasingly racing to package emerging crypto narratives, including decentralized AI, into regulated products.
Digital Yuan holdings to earn interest under China’s new framework
Commentary: The People’s Bank of China will launch a new digital yuan framework, letting commercial banks pay interest on holdings in a move to incentivize broader adoption of the central bank digital currency.
“The future digital yuan will be a modern digital payment and circulation means issued and circulated within the financial system, with technical support and supervision provided by the central bank, possessing the attributes of commercial bank liabilities, based on accounts, compatible with distributed ledger technology, and having the functions of a measure of monetary value, store of value, and cross-border payment,” Lei wrote.
Sberbank issues Russia’s first crypto-backed loan to bitcoin miner Intelion Data
Commentary: Sberbank issued the country’s first bitcoin-backed loan to one of its largest bitcoin miners, calling the transaction a pilot and suggesting it was keen to issue more in the future.
Anatoly Popov, Sberbank’s deputy chairman, said the bank already offers clients structured bonds and digital financial assets with investments in bitcoin, ether and cryptocurrency baskets.
Tokenized silver volumes explode as metal’s price rises to record
Commentary: Interest in silver is spilling into tokenized markets, with onchain trading volumes rising in parallel with activity in futures and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as the metal experiences volatility after hitting successive record highs all month.
Demand from the solar-power industry continues to rise, with silver consumption tied to photovoltaic manufacturing remaining largely inelastic even after prices more than tripled from 2024 levels. Silver’s onchain rally in parallel to its TradFi counterpart seems to be another datapoint to demonstrate that tokenized versions of assets are a trend that’s here to stay.
Iran accepts cryptocurrency as payment for advanced weapons
Commentary: Mindex, the export center of Iran’s Ministry of Defense, is accepting cryptocurrency payments method for advanced weapons systems as a means of bypassing international sanctions that the country faces.
The offer is among the first known instances of a country accepting cryptocurrency as a means of payment for military equipment. The facility for using cryptocurrency as a means of payment in transaction involving sanctioned countries, however, is already well established.
Upcoming Market Events
January 13 - U.S. CPI
January 14 - U.S. PPI
January 28 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision