Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Jan 26 - Jan 30)
FOMC Interest Rate Decision - Jan 28
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this week is worth watching, even if no change to the headline rate is almost unanimously priced in for this meeting. What markets will be paying close attention to is Jerome Powell’s commentary and the Fed’s forward guidance. With inflation still above target and a slowing labor market, policymakers are signaling a pause for now, but futures markets suggest a possible easing later in 2026. The press conference could clarify the sequencing and timing of future cuts as well as the FOMC’s view of underlying economic strength.
Random Musing This Week
Bitcoin Technical Analysis Update
Overnight, we lost an ascending support line (black dotted line) that bulls would have preferred was held in order to make an argument for more bullish upside since BTC broke down from an interim high of $97k and below $90k.
While the breakdown is not an encouraging sign, we can make the case for a potential false breakout that will hopefully see BTC reverse course in the coming weeks. First, we saw an encouraging rebound off a pivot level around $85k (red range), which is our next level of support that bulls will want to see hold in order to start believing in a near-term reversal any time soon. Also, we’re currently showing an oversold RSI on the 4-hr timeframe, which could serve as further confluence that $85k will serve as a short-term bottom. Additionally, RSI is also showing a modest bullish divergence, where price has made a lower low while RSI has made a higher low. As long as price maintains above this range, the market posture stays biased toward accumulation rather than breakdown.
A break below this cluster would raise the risk of deeper retracement and shift focus to secondary support around $83,000, which served as resistance earlier in the 2024 rally and could function as a pivot level now for corrective flows. But if we’re to experience any further downside, it could have us seeing BTC slip below $80k. A sustained break under $78,000 would begin to undermine the recent bullish structure for the first time in several weeks, opening room for broader range extension lower and seeing us potentially hit the next major level of support sitting at $73k.
Recap of Top Stories (Jan 19 - Jan 23)
Interesting
NYSE targets weekend investors with new blockchain platform for 24/7 stock trading
Commentary: The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Monday announced plans to introduce an around the clock blockchain-based tokenized stocks and exchange-traded funds trading venue later this year.
The new platform will enable tokenized trading experiences, including 24/7 operations, instant settlement, orders sized in dollar amounts, and stablecoin-based funding.
Ethereum Foundation makes post quantum security a top priority as new team forms
Commentary: The Ethereum Foundation (EF), a nonprofit organization that supports Ethereum’s development, is turning its long running post quantum research into a public engineering push, forming a dedicated Post Quantum team and calling the effort a top strategic priority for the network.
Drake framed leanVM as a core part of Ethereum’s broader approach to post quantum security, arguing that timelines are accelerating and that Ethereum should move into a build phase rather than keep work in the background. The bigger issue for large networks is not a single breakthrough moment but the time it takes to ship a safe transition, update wallets and move users onto new formats without breaking daily usage.
Japan bond market panic spills into crypto; ‘yields will keep rising until something breaks’
Commentary: The relentless surge in long-dated JGB yields signals that one of the world’s most reliable liquidity backstops is fading, with consequences that extend well beyond Tokyo.
Higher JGB yields raise the opportunity cost of funding carry trades and overseas investments that for decades have relied on Japan as the world’s cheapest source of capital. Whichever route the Bank of Japan takes, the outcome is the same — tighter global liquidity.
BlackRock’s IBIT powers new bitcoin annuity for U.S. retirees via Delaware Life
Commentary: Delaware Life Insurance Company said it has become the first U.S. insurer to offer a cryptocurrency-linked investment within a fixed index annuity (FIA) after partnering with BlackRock.
The index blends U.S. equities with bitcoin exposure through BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), targeting a 12% volatility level using dynamic cash allocations designed to limit bitcoin’s price swings. This FIA offers exposure to both stocks and bitcoin, without putting any of the investor’s original contribution at risk.
Senate Agriculture publishes own version of market structure bill without bipartisan support
Commentary: Frontline crypto developers wouldn’t be subject to treatment as regulated financial firms in the latest U.S. crypto markets legislation, according to bill text that emerged on Wednesday in advance of next week’s planned Senate Agriculture Committee hearing.
As the Senate legislation stands, it maintains the legal liability shield for developers — as long as they don’t control customers’ assets — and it elevates the Commodity Futures Trading Commission toward its expected role as the watchdog of the spot markets for tokens such as bitcoin that aren’t securities.
Ondo Finance Brings 200+ Tokenized U.S. Stocks and ETFs to Solana
Commentary: Ondo Finance is expanding its tokenized equities business to Solana, bringing more than 200 tokenized U.S. stocks and exchange-traded funds to the high-speed blockchain for the first time, the company said Wednesday.
With the Solana deployment, Ondo becomes the largest real-world asset (RWA) issuer on the network by asset count, the company claims. Ondo’s tokenized stocks are built to address that by bringing liquidity inherited from traditional exchange venues and a broad catalog of stocks and ETFs onchain.
Upcoming Market Events
January 28 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision
January 30 - CME Expiry
February 11 - CPI Release