Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Feb 23 - Feb 27)
CME Expiry - Feb 27
The CME Bitcoin and Ether futures expiry is the key event to watch this week. With markets already technically fragile, the unwind of large futures positions could amplify volatility and accelerate whichever directional trend is already in motion.
Random Musing This Week
Bottom Watch: Update
Two weeks removed from the initial capitulation flush into the $60,000 region, Bitcoin’s price structure has evolved into a clearer consolidation phase. The updated 4-hour chart shows a defined compression range forming between roughly $64,000 and $68,500, with repeated attempts to reclaim the upper boundary failing to produce follow-through. Rather than impulsive recovery, price action has shifted into tight rotational movement, suggesting balance between dip buyers and overhead supply.
The most important development is that the $62,000–$64,000 support cluster continues to hold, even after multiple retests. The recent sweep toward $64,000 was quickly absorbed, producing a sharp intraday bounce. This reinforces that the early February flush was likely a significant liquidity event rather than the beginning of an uncontrolled cascade. However, stabilization alone does not imply trend reversal. The market has not yet reclaimed the breakdown pivot at $68,500, and more importantly remains well below the broader structural resistance at $73,000 and $83,000.
From a wave structure standpoint, the selloff into $60,000 still fits the profile of a terminal impulsive leg. What has followed resembles a developing corrective pattern, potentially forming a base. If this is a classic bottoming process, we would expect continued range compression followed by a breakout through $68,500 and then a challenge of $73,000. Failure to reclaim those levels would increase the probability that the current range resolves lower and that the $60,000 region faces another structural test.
For now, Bitcoin is no longer in panic mode, but it is not in recovery mode either. The market has transitioned from capitulation to compression. The next decisive move will likely occur on a break of either $68,500 to the upside or $64,000 to the downside, with those levels serving as the near-term inflection points for determining whether this base holds or expands into a deeper corrective phase.
Recap of Top Stories (Feb 16 - Feb 20)
Interesting
Aave Labs Proposes ‘Aave Will Win’ Plan to Send 100% of Product Revenue to DAO
Commentary: Aave Labs has introduced a new governance proposal that would shape the next chapter of one of crypto’s largest lending platforms, and send all revenue from Aave-branded products back to its community treasury.
If approved, additional proposals will outline how V4 will be activated and how funding will be structured. Taken together, the framework signals Aave’s ambition to evolve from a leading DeFi lending protocol into a broader piece of global financial infrastructure governed by its DAO.
Institutional crypto platform BlockFills reportedly halts withdrawals, restricts trading
Commentary: Amid sharp, mostly downward volatility in crypto markets, BlockFills has halted withdrawals and restricted trading on its platform.
In light of recent market and financial conditions, and to further the protection of clients and the firm, BlockFills took the action last week of temporarily suspending client deposits and withdrawals. The action is reminiscent of 2022’s crypto winter, which saw numerous platforms forced to suspend withdrawals as the bear market deepened, with many of them ultimately collapsing.
Hong Kong regulator approves first crypto company license since June
Commentary: Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) granted a crypto license to Victory Fintech (VDX), an affiliate entity of publicly listed financial services firm Victory Securities (8540).
Victory won permission to operate a digital asset trading platform on Friday. The regime has earned a reputation for being one of the strictest among major financial jurisdictions.
SocGen taps XRP Ledger for euro stablecoin distribution
Commentary: Societe Generale’s digital assets arm SG-FORGE has deployed its euro stablecoin, EUR CoinVertible, on the XRP Ledger, expanding beyond its existing integrations on Ethereum and Solana as competition heats up in Europe’s regulated stablecoin race.
EUR CoinVertible is issued under French digital asset rules and is backed 1 to 1 by cash deposits or high-quality securities. For XRPL, the listing is another institutional credibility win as the network positions itself as a compliant venue for tokenized finance.
Dubai takes next step to make real estate flips instant in $16 billion tokenization plan
Commentary: The Dubai Land Department (DLD) and tokenization firm Ctrl Alt unveiled a secondary market for real estate-backed tokens, enabling the resale of $5 million in fractional property ownership.
Transactions will take place on a regulated distribution platform, recorded on the XRP Ledger blockchain and secured by Ripple Custody. DLD, a government agency for the real estate industry, set out a roadmap last year to tokenize 7% — or about $16 billion — of Dubai’s real estate market by 2033.
Trump-linked World Liberty taps BlackRock-backed Securitize for hotel tokenization
Commentary: World Liberty Financial is tapping real-world asset specialist Securitize to help tokenize loan interests tied to the Trump International Hotel and Resort in the Maldives.
Rather than direct equity in the properties, investors will be able to buy tokens tied to loan revenue. Eligible accredited investors will receive a fixed yield and payments linked to the loan’s performance.
Upcoming Market Events
Feb 27 - CME Expiry
March 12 - CPI Release
March 19 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision