Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Feb 9 - Feb 13)
US Initial Jobless Claims / CPI - Feb 12-13
Initial jobless claims on February 12 and CPI on February 13 will serve as key macro checkpoints, providing updated signals on labor market strength and inflation trajectory. With Bitcoin currently testing major structural support, deviations from expectations in either direction could act as catalysts for increased volatility, influencing liquidity conditions and broader risk sentiment..
Random Musing This Week
Bottom Watch: Signs of Capitulation Emerging as Bitcoin Tests Structural Support
Bitcoin’s sharp breakdown into early February marked a decisive shift in market structure, with price falling from the mid-$90,000 range to briefly test levels just above $60,000 before staging a modest recovery. As shown in the chart, the speed and magnitude of the decline bear the hallmarks of a capitulation event, with price slicing through multiple support zones in rapid succession before stabilizing near a key structural level. This type of move is typically associated with forced liquidations, leveraged position unwinds, and the transfer of supply from weak to stronger hands.
From a technical standpoint, momentum indicators support the view that the market has reached an extreme condition. The Relative Strength Index (RSI - bottom indicator) fell into deeply oversold territory during the breakdown. Historically, such oversold readings do not necessarily mark the exact bottom, but they do signal that selling pressure has become stretched and that the probability of reflexive bounces and accumulation increases. The subsequent stabilization and slight recovery in RSI suggests that downward momentum may be beginning to exhaust itself, even if broader trend structure remains weak.
The wave structure also points toward a potential capitulation phase. The recent decline unfolded in a clear impulsive pattern, culminating in a final accelerated selloff that pushed price rapidly into the $60,000 region before reversing sharply higher. This type of terminal move is often associated with the final stage of a corrective sequence, where panic selling peaks and liquidity gaps are filled. While this does not guarantee that the ultimate cycle bottom has formed, it does indicate that a significant portion of forced selling may have already occurred.
Key levels remain well defined. The $60,000–$62,000 range now represents the most important structural support zone, aligning with historical cost basis clusters and the area where buyers aggressively stepped in during the recent flush. A sustained hold above this level would strengthen the case that Bitcoin is entering a broader accumulation phase. On the upside, reclaiming the $73,000 level, which previously served as support before the breakdown, would represent the first sign of structural recovery and reduce the likelihood of immediate continuation lower.
At the same time, Bitcoin remains below multiple prior support zones that have now become resistance, particularly the $83,000 and $92,000 levels, which defined the previous trading range. Until those levels are reclaimed, the broader trend should be viewed as corrective rather than bullish.
Taken together, the combination of deeply oversold momentum conditions, impulsive capitulation-like price action, and emerging buyer support suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning into the later stages of a bottoming process. Historically, this phase is characterized by increased volatility and range formation as the market absorbs supply. Whether the recent low ultimately proves to be the cycle bottom or simply an intermediate floor will depend on Bitcoin’s ability to hold structural support and gradually reclaim higher resistance levels in the weeks ahead.
Recap of Top Stories (Feb 2 - Feb 6)
Interesting
Wall Street giant CME Group is eyeing its own ‘CME Coin,’ CEO says
Commentary: CME Group CEO Terry Duffy has suggested the derivatives giant is exploring launching its own cryptocurrency.
In response to a question from Morgan Stanley’s Michael Cyprys during the company’s latest earnings call, Duffy confirmed the firm is exploring “initiatives with our own coin that we could potentially put on a decentralized network.” While CME Group has previously flagged tokenization as a general area of interest, CEO Terry Duffy’s comments this week mark the first time the exchange has explicitly floated the concept of a proprietary, CME-issued asset running on a decentralized network.
Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, prepares to issue crypto-backed loans
Commentary: Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, is moving toward offering loans secured by cryptocurrency and said Friday it is prepared to coordinate with the country’s central bank on shaping the necessary regulatory framework.
The bank issued the country’s first bitcoin-backed loan to one of its largest bitcoin miners, IntelionData, calling the transaction a pilot and suggesting it was keen to issue more in the future. Sberbank said the planned lending program would target not only mining companies but also businesses that hold cryptocurrency on their balance sheets.
MetaMask integrates Ondo to offer 200+ tokenized U.S. stocks inside crypto wallet
Commentary: MetaMask, the popular self-custodial wallet, has added access to tokenized U.S. stocks, exchange-traded funds and commodities through a new integration with Ondo Finance’s Global Markets platform.
The launch marks one of the first times tokenized U.S. equities and ETFs have been made natively available through a major self-custodial wallet, highlighting how real-world asset tokenization might become more closely integrated with traditional financial infrastructure.
Tether invests $100 million in U.S. crypto bank Anchorage, valued at $4.2 billion
Commentary: Tether, the company behind the world’s largest stablecoin USDT said it has invested $100 million in Anchorage Digital, a federally regulated digital asset bank.
The two companies already had a working relationship, with Anchorage serving as the banking partner behind Tether’s USAT stablecoin, designed specifically for the U.S. market to comply with local regulations. The investment gives Tether a foothold in the fast-growing U.S. stablecoin infrastructure, which is moving towards regulated players after the GENIUS Act was written into law last year.
ProShares unveils first U.S. ETF that lets you buy the top 20 cryptos at once
Commentary: ProShares unveiled the first U.S.-listed exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to target the performance of the CoinDesk 20 Index, expanding options for investors seeking broad exposure to crypto markets.
The CoinDesk 20 Crypto ETF (KRYP) is the first ETF tied to the benchmark of 20 of the largest and most liquid digital assets. “As the cryptocurrency market has matured, investors have increasingly looked beyond single-asset exposure,” CEO Michael Sapir said in a statement, describing KRYP as a way to access the broader asset class through one ticker.
Hong Kong will start granting stablecoin issuer licenses in March: Reuters
Commentary: Hong Kong’s financial watchdog will grant a first batch of “very few” stablecoin issuer licenses in March, according to Reuters.
Eddie Yue, the chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), said he expects to issue the first series of stablecoin issuer licences in March. The head of the HKMA highlighted that the criteria for stablecoin issuer license approval assessments focused on issues such as risk management, anti-money laundering measures, and the backing assets of the stablecoins.
Upcoming Market Events
February 10 - Consensus Hong Kong 2026
February 11 - CPI Release
February 15 - U.S. Corporate Estimated Tax Payment Deadline