Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Feb 2 - Feb 6)
US January jobs report - Feb 6
Friday’s jobs data is the key macro checkpoint this week that could materially influence market direction because it is the first major macro datapoint of the month and often sets the tone for risk assets into mid-February as well as feeds directly into expectations around Federal Reserve policy.
Random Musing This Week
Key Levels That Matter for Bitcoin This Week
The price action at the end of January and into early February has become increasingly important in framing Bitcoin’s medium-term cycle risk. After failing to reclaim key moving averages and rolling over from the mid-to-upper range, BTC accelerated lower in a manner that closely resembles the early stages of the 2022 bear market. In both cases, price spent several weeks chopping below declining trend resistance before breaking down decisively, suggesting exhaustion rather than consolidation. The inability to hold rebounds and the speed of the recent leg lower indicate that sellers remain in control and that dip buying has weakened materially.
What stands out in the current structure is how closely the move mirrors the 2022 bear cycle fractal shown in the chart. In that prior cycle, Bitcoin experienced a sharp initial drawdown, followed by a reflex bounce that failed beneath major moving averages, before entering a prolonged phase of lower lows and compressed volatility. The current breakdown below the late January range and the rejection near declining averages echo that same transition. If this analog continues to hold, the market may be entering a phase where downside extensions occur not through panic, but through persistent pressure and failed relief rallies.
Should this bear cycle continuation scenario play out, price action is likely to remain volatile but directionally biased lower, with rallies struggling to reclaim prior support zones. Such conditions tend to persist until forced sellers are largely exhausted and longer-term holders begin to absorb supply at materially lower levels.
However, this does not imply disorderly collapse, but rather a shift in regime. If Bitcoin continues to track this historical pattern, the coming months could see price stabilize at lower ranges while sentiment resets and capital reallocates. That process, while uncomfortable, has historically laid the groundwork for eventual cycle bottoms and future accumulation phases.
The key takeaway from the recent price action is that Bitcoin is no longer behaving like an asset in consolidation, but rather one testing whether the current cycle has fully transitioned into a sustained bearish trend. In the coming weeks, we’ll need to see if pivot levels at $73k and $68.5k can provide enough support for buyers to step in and allow for BTC price to rebound in the interim.
Recap of Top Stories (Jan 26 - Jan 30)
Interesting
Crypto bill clears U.S. Senate milestone despite Democrat opposition
Commentary: A U.S. Senate committee formally advanced the crypto market structure bill on Thursday, moving to a new stage with the legislation that the industry hopes will help it reach a new plateau of investor confidence and involvement.
The resulting Republican-driven result will still need to gather significant Democratic support before it can eventually clear the structural hurdles of the Senate. After the legislation cleared the Senate Agriculture Committee on Thursday, it eventually needs to do the same in the Banking Committee.
The market for tokenized equities has exploded by almost 3,000% in a single year
Commentary: Tokenized equities are approaching the $1 billion mark, underscoring how real-world asset (RWA) tokenization is moving beyond pilots and into a fast-developing segment of crypto market infrastructure.
The rise reflects growing demand for blockchain-based access to traditional financial assets, as firms increasingly explore tokenization as a way to improve settlement efficiency, broaden market access and build always-on financial products. With tokenized equities nearing $1 billion, the sector is emerging as a bellwether for how quickly RWAs can scale — and how much institutional adoption may hinge on regulation, custody and market structure catching up with blockchain innovation.
Tether takes the fight to Circle with a new ‘made in America’ stablecoin
Commentary: Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin USDT, is making its move into the U.S. domestic market with the launch of USAT, a dollar-backed token issued by Anchorage Digital Bank.
The launch, announced Tuesday, represents Tether’s first product specifically designed to operate within the U.S. federal stablecoin framework established under the GENIUS Act. For years, Circle’s USDC has been the preferred stablecoin for U.S. institutions due to its transparency and domestic alignment.
BlackRock doubles down on bitcoin fund offerings with income-focused filing
Commentary: BlackRock is moving deeper into the cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund market with a plan to offer income from bitcoin exposure.
The proposed fund would actively manage exposure to bitcoin, either directly or through shares of BlackRock’s existing iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), while generating income by selling call options on that exposure. Still, BlackRock’s entry stands out for its scale and ties to IBIT, already the dominant spot bitcoin ETF with over $69.7 billion in assets.
Nomura’s Laser Digital applies for U.S. national trust bank to offer crypto custody
Commentary: Laser Digital, the digital assets arm of Japanese investment bank Nomura, said it filed an application with the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to open a federally regulated national trust bank.
The proposed Laser Digital National Trust Bank would be based in the U.S. and serve institutional clients with custody for cryptocurrencies and U.S. government securities. If approved, Laser Digital would join a small group of federally regulated crypto-native institutions able to offer these services under direct supervision from a national regulator.
Robinhood is investing in crypto trading platform Talos at $1.5 billion valuation
Commentary: Robinhood (HOOD) is investing in Talos, an institutional trading technology provider for digital assets, in an extended Series B funding round that values the New York-based company at around $1.5 billion.
Talos originally raised $105 million in a Series B funding round in May 2022, valuing the firm at $1.25 billion. Robinhood has been expanding its reach in crypto and blockchain infrastructure as part of its broader expansion strategy.
Upcoming Market Events
February 10 - Consensus Hong Kong 2026
February 11 - CPI Release
February 15 - U.S. Corporate Estimated Tax Payment Deadline