Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (Dec 08 - Dec 12)
FOMC Interest Rate Decision - Dec 10
This week’s FOMC rate decision will be the main focus of attention, with the market overwhelmingly expecting a rate cut that could provide more fuel to the rally. However, with the rate cut now nearly inevitable, the path forward will be even more important in determining how markets play out to end the year.
Random Musing This Week
Bitcoin Technical Analysis Update
Our last analysis of Bitcoin potential price action nearly called an accurate bottom to November’s drop, with our expectation of a similar 30+% decline that occurred in the spring of 2025 being matched. Bitcoin ended up wicking slightly lower, with the final capitulation resulting in a dip just beyond our call of $83-85k as the near-term bottom.
Since then, we’ve established successive higher lows, and we believe we have room for further upside in the mid-term. Targets that we have in mind are the 50-day moving average (purple line), found roughly at $98-99k, and a pivot level at roughly $100k.
However, Bitcoin’s short term trend is still bearish. This week’s FOMC meeting will carry significant weight, especially because the Fed is expected to provide guidance on how they plan to shape monetary policy in the near future. This has the potential to change the Bitcoin price structure and short-term expectation moving forward.
If the Fed unveils a dovish outlook, prices will likely grind higher, but we’ll need to see the reaction to the aforementioned resistance levels laid out. If the 95-100k level serves as resistance, it implies at best a retest of the $83-85k region and at worst, a possible lower low in the near future.
It will be imperative to watch price action as well as ETF flows over the next week or two to see how we end the year. And should $83-85k be lost in that period, our next level of support that we are eyeing will be in the $73-75k range.
Recap of Top Stories (Dec 1 - Dec 5)
Interesting
Ethereum Activates Fusaka Upgrade, Aiming to Cut Node Costs, Speed Layer-2 Settlements
Commentary: Ethereum activated its “Fusaka” upgrade, marking the blockchain’s second major code change of 2025. The update is designed to help Ethereum handle the increasingly large transaction batches coming from the layer-2 networks that settle on top of it.
At the center of the upgrade is PeerDAS, a system that lets validators check small slices of data rather than entire “blobs,” reducing both costs and computational load for validators and layer-2 networks. Beyond layer 2s, the upgrade is also expected to lower the barrier for smaller or newer validator operators by cutting down the resources required to run just a few validators.
Polymarket Launches App With CFTC Green Light in U.S. Return
Commentary: Polymarket launched a mobile app in the U.S., offering users a new way to bet on sports events using real money under federal oversight. The app, currently available for iOS, opens access to users on a rolling basis through a waitlist system.
This marks a major return for Polymarket in the U.S. after its 2022 run-in with regulators. The platform had previously been barred from operating stateside after the CFTC found it offered unregistered event-based derivatives. That led to a $1.4 million settlement and a pivot toward regulatory compliance.
Kraken Partners With Deutsche Börse as Europe Looks to Rival Wall Street in Crypto
Commentary: Deutsche Börse Group and Kraken announced that they are combining forces, signaling a clear acceleration of institutional cryptocurrency adoption in the Eurozone.
By combining Kraken’s proven crypto-native expertise and U.S. market access with the trust and systemic importance of DBG’s regulated derivatives clearing, Eurex, and custody arm, Clearstream, they will build a comprehensive, full-stack bridge designed to capture institutional flow. The new partnership between DBG and Kraken serves as a structural declaration that Europe’s financial core is committed to directly challenging U.S. dominance in the emerging digital capital markets.
Coinbase, Chainlink Introduce Base-Solana Bridge to Link Ecosystems
Commentary: A new bridge connecting Base and the Solana blockchain is now live on mainnet, giving users and developers a way to move assets directly between the two ecosystems. Secured by Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol and Coinbase, the Base-Solana bridge enables trading and usage of Solana-based tokens on decentralized applications built on Base.
For users, this means they can now deposit Solana tokens into Base-based decentralized applications that integrate the bridge and begin trading or interacting with them without leaving the Base environment. For developers, it opens up the ability to support native Solana assets natively within their applications.
French Banking Giant BPCE to Roll Out Crypto Trading for 2M Retail Clients
Commentary: French banking group BPCE is set to start offering crypto trading services to retail customers through its Banque Populaire and Caisse d’Épargne apps.
Customers of four regional banks, including Banque Populaire Île-de-France and Caisse d’Épargne Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, will be able to buy and sell bitcoin, ether, solana, and USDC directly through their banking apps. The rollout will reach around 2 million customers in the pilot phase, with BPCE planning to expand access to its full 12-million-strong retail base through 2026.
Upcoming Market Events
December 10 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision
December 18 - U.S. CPI (Nov)
December 30 - FOMC Minutes