Market Watch
Things to Watch This Week (August 24 - August 28)
· Markets Look to Jackson Hole as Policy and Geopolitical Uncertainty Persist
Global markets remained cautious as investors awaited further guidance on U.S. monetary policy from the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Attention also turned to upcoming inflation data, while continued tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz kept energy and geopolitical risks elevated.
Random Musing This Week
Bitcoin and Gold in the Recent Market Rally: Is Bitcoin Truly Emerging as “Digital Gold”?
Recently, Bitcoin and gold have shown remarkably similar price movements. Both assets went through a period of correction before rebounding sharply in August, with their rallies accelerating as concerns over U.S. fiscal conditions and the value of the dollar intensified. Gold has traditionally been viewed as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has increasingly been described as “digital gold,” largely because of its fixed supply of 21 million coins. The recent simultaneous rally has once again brought this comparison into focus.
The recent decline and subsequent recovery of the two assets were also driven, to some extent, by similar macroeconomic factors. Changes in liquidity and interest-rate expectations, together with a stronger dollar, initially weighed on both gold and Bitcoin. As concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability grew and the dollar weakened, however, both assets rebounded strongly. In particular, expectations of lower long-term yields and growing concerns over the purchasing power of fiat currencies encouraged investors to seek scarce assets as alternative stores of value. In this environment, both gold and Bitcoin have benefited from the so-called “debasement trade.”
Despite these similarities, the underlying drivers of their price movements remain significantly different. Gold continues to benefit from traditional factors such as central-bank purchases and safe-haven demand during periods of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is influenced not only by macroeconomic conditions but also by crypto-specific factors, including institutional flows through spot ETFs, regulatory developments, leverage in derivatives markets, and large-scale short liquidations. As a result, even when Bitcoin and gold move in the same direction, Bitcoin tends to experience much larger gains and losses.
Overall, recent price movements suggest that Bitcoin is increasingly sharing some of gold’s characteristics. Both assets have limited supply and are independent of issuance by any single government, making them potential alternatives during periods of dollar weakness, inflation concerns, and fiscal uncertainty. However, unlike gold, which has a long-established role as a safe-haven asset, Bitcoin continues to exhibit characteristics of a risk asset, with significantly higher volatility and greater sensitivity to crypto-specific market dynamics. Therefore, rather than viewing Bitcoin as a direct substitute for gold, it may be more appropriate to describe it as a “high-beta digital gold” — an asset that increasingly shares gold’s macroeconomic narrative, but with substantially greater risk and volatility.
Recap of Top Stories (August 17 - August 21)
Top Story of the Week
SEC Proposes Regulation Crypto Assets, Its First Tailored Framework for Token Offerings
[Regulation] [Market Structure] [Policy] [Capital Markets]
On August 18, the SEC proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, a 402-page framework establishing its first offering regime built specifically for crypto assets. It applies to “covered investment contracts” — crypto assets sold alongside a promise of future managerial effort — rather than reclassifying the tokens themselves as securities.
The proposal creates two exemptions from Securities Act registration: a startup exemption for offerings up to $5 million over four years, and a two-tier fundraising exemption modeled on Regulation A permitting up to $20 million and up to $75 million in any 12-month period, the latter with ongoing reporting obligations.
It also includes a conditional safe harbor under which a covered investment contract ceases to exist once an issuer completes or permanently ceases the managerial efforts it promised, and would preempt state registration requirements. It is the SEC’s first formal crypto rulemaking, open for comment for 60 days.
Also, In Focus
Treasury Proposes the First Major Rule Implementing the GENIUS Act
[Regulation] [Stablecoin] [Policy]
On August 17, the U.S. Treasury issued a notice of proposed rulemaking implementing Section 3 of the GENIUS Act, defining when a payment stablecoin is issued, offered, or sold in the United States — the boundary that determines which firms must hold a federal or state license.
The rule sets the jurisdictional trigger at stablecoins issued in the U.S. or to a person located there, and creates a pathway for foreign issuers to access the U.S. market. Comments are due October 19, and the Act’s effective date remains January 18, 2027.
Citi Unveils Custody+ and Will Launch Institutional Bitcoin Custody This Year
[Banking] [Institutional] [Infrastructure]
On August 18, Citi introduced Custody+, a modular custody suite, and confirmed it will go live with native Bitcoin custody for institutional clients before the end of 2026 — placing the $2.78 trillion bank alongside the largest custodians building digital-asset infrastructure.
Clients would hold traditional and crypto assets within the same account structure, reporting stack, and risk and compliance workflows used for equities and bonds. The suite also includes a white-label platform allowing other institutions to plug into Citi’s back office.
Ripple and Jeonbuk Bank Bring Round-the-Clock Settlement to Korean Regional Banking
[Payments] [Asia] [Banking]
On August 18, Ripple partnered with JB Jeonbuk Bank, making it the first regional bank in South Korea to deploy Ripple Payments for cross-border business remittances — replacing multi-day correspondent banking with settlement in seconds to minutes, available around the clock.
The service targets import-export firms, IT startups, and content creators, running behind the scenes so customers never handle digital-asset wallets. It is Ripple’s third Korean institutional partnership of 2026, after Kyobo Life and Kbank.
Upcoming Market Events
August 28-29 - Bitcoin Asia 2026
September 9 - Stablecon USA
September 15 - CLARITY Act procedural vote