Things to Watch This Week (Apr 20 - Apr 24)

• Inflation, Oil Shock, and Earnings in Focus

Investors remain focused on the geopolitical backdrop, particularly U.S.-Iran tensions and ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to pose risks to global oil supply. Oil prices remain volatile, reigniting concerns about inflationary pressures. This adds uncertainty to the interest rate outlook as markets assess the potential for prolonged energy-driven inflation.

Random Musing This Week

When Collateral Breaks: The Hidden Risk Behind the Kelp Exploit

Kelp DAO is a liquid restaking protocol that allows users to deposit ETH, earn additional yield through EigenLayer, and receive rsETH as a tradable staking receipt. The Kelp exploit — where unbacked rsETH was minted via a compromised cross-chain bridge and used to extract real liquidity from DeFi protocols — stands as the largest DeFi hack of 2026 so far, but more importantly, it highlights how the nature of crypto exploits is evolving.

Looking at recent data, the majority of losses are no longer driven by traditional smart contract bugs alone. Instead, they are dominated by key compromises, phishing attacks, access control failures, and increasingly, complex cross-chain vulnerabilities. The attack surface in DeFi has expanded beyond isolated code errors into interconnected infrastructure.

Against this backdrop, the Kelp exploit was not an outlier — it was a continuation of this trend. At the center of the incident was a failure in cross-chain message validation. By exploiting Kelp DAO’s LayerZero-powered bridge, the attacker was able to mint unbacked rsETH without depositing any underlying ETH. Unlike many historical exploits, this did not involve draining liquidity pools directly or manipulating price oracles. Instead, it created synthetic collateral that appeared valid within the system. Once minted, the attacker deposited this unbacked rsETH into Aave and borrowed real WETH against it. By the time the protocol reacted, over $200 million in real assets had already been extracted.

The implications are structural. In a composable DeFi environment, assets like rsETH move freely across protocols and chains, often reused as collateral multiple times. This interconnectedness allows capital to flow efficiently, but it also enables risk to propagate rapidly. A single compromised asset can cascade through lending markets, liquidity pools, and derivative positions. This is exactly what happened. Within hours, lending markets froze, billions of dollars in liquidity exited, and utilization rates spiked. The event quickly transitioned from a protocol-specific exploit into a system-wide liquidity shock.

It also reinforces a growing tension in DeFi design. Shared liquidity and composability maximize efficiency, but they assume that all integrated components are reliable. As attack vectors shift toward infrastructure and cross-chain systems, that assumption becomes increasingly fragile. Ultimately, the Kelp exploit suggests that the next phase of DeFi risk is less about breaking code and more about breaking trust in the inputs.

In an ecosystem where everything is connected, verifying what goes into the system may matter more than securing what happens inside it.

Recap of Top Stories (Apr 13 - Apr 17)

Interesting

• 2026’s biggest crypto exploit: $292 million gets drained from Kelp DAO with wrapped ether stranded across 20 chains

  • Commentary: The attacker tricked LayerZero’s cross-chain messaging layer into believing a valid instruction had arrived from another network, which triggered Kelp’s bridge to release 116,500 rsETH to an attacker-controlled address.

  • With that reserve drained, holders on non-Ethereum deployments now face the question of whether their tokens have anything underneath them, which creates a feedback loop where panic redemptions on L2s pressure the unaffected Ethereum supply.

• Rakuten to allow XRP to be used as payment method by its 44 million customers

  • Commentary: Japan’s e-commerce giant Rakuten’s subsidiary Rakuten Wallet is adding XRP to its Rakuten Pay app, allowing its 44 million users to use Ripple’s cryptocurrency as a payment method with more than 5 million merchant locations across the country.

  • Tatsuya Kohrogi, Ripple’s senior ecosystem growth manager, said they will also be able to purchase XRP with Rakuten points and hold it in their Rakuten Wallet. The fact that XRP is now embedded into its loyalty and payments infrastructure is a powerful signal of where digital asset adoption is heading.

• South Korea to test blockchain deposit tokens for government spending in Q4

  • Commentary: South Korea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance will begin testing blockchain-based deposit tokens for government spending in the fourth quarter as part of a broader push to modernize how public funds are managed.

  • Token-based payments can be programmed with predefined conditions, including limits on when funds can be used and which industries can accept them. The system also removes intermediaries such as card networks, which the ministry says could lower transaction fees for small businesses that receive government payments.

• Goldman Sachs files for bitcoin income ETF in crypto push

  • Commentary: The proposed fund would give investors exposure to bitcoin while generating income through a premium-based strategy.

  • Asset managers are increasingly trying to package bitcoin into products that resemble dividend-paying stocks or income funds, rather than relying only on price gains. Goldman’s move signals that competition is expanding beyond spot bitcoin exposure into more complex strategies designed to generate steady returns.

• XRP Ledger adds zero-knowledge proofs targeting institutional privacy gap

  • Commentary: The move is designed to let financial institutions transact privately on the public blockchain while meeting regulatory requirements.

  • Transaction flows, treasury positions, and counterparty relationships are visible by default on public ledgers. Zero-knowledge proofs solve this by allowing one party to prove a statement is true without revealing the underlying data.

• Visa and Zodia Custody join Stripe’s new blockchain for machine payments

  • Commentary: Alongside Stripe, Visa and Zodia will participate in the Tempo blockchain by maintaining network security and verifying transactions.

  • Now the focus is on supporting the evolution of new payment flows such as machine-to-machine commerce using AI agents. Sheffield believes the crypto industry is entering a phase where decentralization is no longer the primary value proposition.

Upcoming Market Events

• April 29 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Things to Watch This Week (Apr 13 - Apr 17)

• Geopolitical Risk: U.S.–Iran Tensions

  Investors are closely watching the fallout from escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, particularly after the breakdown in talks and the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which raises risks of oil supply disruptions. Higher oil prices could add renewed inflationary pressure following last week’s CPI data, complicating the outlook for interest rates.

Random Musing This Week

Stablecoin Regulation and Its Real Impact on Lending

Following last week’s focus on stablecoin regulation, the White House released a related analysis, which we share here. According to the report, the impact of stablecoin yield restrictions on the banking system may be significantly more limited than previously expected.

1. Rethinking the Lending Risk Narrative
The primary policy concern behind restricting stablecoin yield is that yield-bearing stablecoins could attract deposits away from traditional banks, thereby reducing lending capacity. However, recent research indicates that this transmission channel is weak in practice. When users convert bank deposits into stablecoins, the funds are typically reinvested into assets such as U.S. Treasuries. These flows often return to the banking system through financial intermediaries, meaning that total deposits remain largely stable rather than declining outright. As a result, the effect on aggregate bank lending is minimal.

2. Why the Impact is Structurally Limited

Two key structural factors significantly dampen the impact on lending:

• Reserve Composition: Only a small portion of stablecoin reserves (estimated at ~12%) is held in bank deposits that are effectively locked out of lending. The majority is invested in Treasuries, which circulate back into the financial system.

• Bank Behavior: Even when deposits increase, banks do not fully translate this into new lending. Instead, a substantial portion is absorbed into liquidity buffers, further reducing the pass-through to credit expansion.

This multi-layered dampening mechanism explains why even large portfolio shifts result in negligible changes to lending.

3. Quantitative Reality Check

Model-based estimates suggest that a full prohibition on stablecoin yield would increase bank lending by only around $2.1 billion, or approximately 0.02% of total loans.This stands in sharp contrast to earlier narratives that projected large-scale disintermediation or trillion-dollar impacts on credit supply.

4. Welfare Trade-Off: Small Gains, Larger Costs

While yield restrictions may slightly increase lending and marginally lower borrowing costs, they impose a larger cost on stablecoin holders by eliminating yield opportunities.The net effect is negative, as the loss to investors outweighs the modest gains in lending. This reframes the policy not as a stabilizing force, but as a trade-off that may reduce overall economic efficiency.

Recap of Top Stories (Apr 6 - Apr 10)

Interesting

• HSBC and Standard Chartered-led group land Hong Kong’s first stablecoin licenses

  • Commentary: The approvals by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), the territory’s central bank, mark the first batch under the Stablecoins Ordinance, which took effect in August 2025.

  • In practice, this means HKD stablecoins will likely embed compliance checks into their smart contracts, restricting transfers to wallets listed in an on-chain white list. The bank-led stablecoin model also reflects the HKMA’s decision to deprioritize its central bank digital currency for retail use.

• South Korea proposes cryptocurrency law with bank-style rules for stablecoins

  • Commentary: South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party proposed a “Digital Asset Basic Act” Wednesday that would establish a legal framework for digital assets, including issuance, trading, custody and supervision.

  • It defines value-linked digital assets, including those tied to fiat currencies or real-world assets, as a category requiring issuer authorization, refund reserves and redemption obligations. The bill also said it aims to “establish a foundation for Korea to lead the global digital financial order.

• Standard Chartered is looking to take over crypto custody provider Zodia: Bloomberg

  • Commentary: Standard Chartered PLC is reportedly seeking to fully acquire Zodia Custody Ltd. to merge it with one of its digital asset divisions.

  • The ‘restructuring’ plan, which could come as soon as this month, contemplates merging Zodia’s crypto custody business into one of the investment bank’s divisions that provides similar services. Crypto custody in particular has become a competitive battleground, with firms including State Street, BNY Mellon and Morgan Stanley expanding their presence.

• Six Swiss banks join forces to build a unified digital franc

  • Commentary: consortium of six major Swiss banks joined forces with Swiss Stablecoin AG to test use cases for a Swiss franc-pegged stablecoin.

  • The group will run the stablecoin trial period through 2026, allowing banks and other institutions to test transactions in a live but controlled setting. The banks aim to test how such a token could support payments, improve settlement speed and connect blockchain-based applications with traditional money.

• Solana Foundation unveils security overhaul days after $270 million Drift exploit

  • Commentary: The Solana Foundation announced a suite of security initiatives on Monday, just five days after decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Drift Protocol suffered a $270 million exploit.

  • The vulnerability was human: The attackers spent six months building relationships with Drift contributors and compromised their devices. The attack exploited the gap between onchain correctness and offchain human trust, a gap no smart contract audit or monitoring tool is built to cover.

• Aave loses key risk manager, Chaos Labs, amid contributor exodus and disputes

  • Commentary: Chaos Labs, one of Aave’s key risk managers, is leaving the DeFi lending giant’s ecosystem. “The engagement no longer reflects how we believe risk should be managed. The loss of experienced contributors is raising operational risk, especially as Aave transitions between versions.”

Upcoming Market Events

• April 29 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Things to Watch This Week (Apr 6 - Apr 10)

• Inflation, Oil Shock, and Earnings in Focus

Investors are closely watching this week’s CPI report for early signs of inflation pressures driven by rising oil prices amid the Iran conflict. The war has already disrupted global energy supply and increased market volatility, making inflation data especially critical for shaping interest rate expectations.

Random Musing This Week

Clarity Act – Redefining Stablecoins

Recent developments around the Clarity Act have triggered a shift in how markets interpret stablecoins. What initially appeared as a negative regulatory shock is increasingly being reframed as a structural transition in the role of crypto within the financial system.

1. Initial Repricing
In late March, early drafts of the Clarity Act proposed restrictions on stablecoin yield, including a ban on returns from simply holding assets like USD Coin. This led to a sharp repricing, with Circle’s stock declining as investors reassessed the long-term economics of yield-bearing stablecoins. The framework points toward activity-based rewards rather than passive income, a direction that Circle has not publicly supported, given its implications for the current stablecoin model.

2. Coinbase Shift
Last week, Coinbase reportedly secured conditional U.S. regulatory approval via an OCC trust charter, signaling closer alignment with traditional finance. At the same time, its stance on the Clarity Act appears to have shifted toward a more supportive position, suggesting a potential strategic alignment with the evolving regulatory framework.

3. Timeline
The Clarity Act is now entering a critical phase. A Senate committee process is expected to progress through April, followed by a potential full Senate vote in May if momentum continues. Given the current timing, markets are in a pre-decision window where positioning is driven more by expectations than confirmed outcomes, with a possible resolution by early summer.

Recap of Top Stories (Mar 30 - Apr 3)

Interesting

• Bitcoin enters the public bond market as Moody’s gives a first-of-its-kind crypto deal a rating

  • Commentary: The New Hampshire Business Finance Authority is set to issue what appears to be the first rated bitcoin-backed bond of its kind, marking a step toward integrating crypto into traditional public finance.

  • The structure relies on bitcoin rather than cash flow from a business. Still, the structure places bitcoin into a part of the financial system where it has rarely appeared: rated debt issued through public channels.

• Schwab plans spot bitcoin, ether trading launch in first half of 2026

  • Commentary: Brokerage services giant Charles Schwab plans to roll out spot cryptocurrency trading in the first half of 2026, pushing it deeper into digital assets.

  • CEO framed the effort as a way to bring digital assets into the same account view as stocks and bonds in a push toward a more unified investment platform. The firm reported $11.9 trillion in client assets in 2025, offering a built-in base of retail and institutional investors who may prefer trading crypto within a familiar brokerage environment rather than using standalone platforms.

• Solana DeFi platform Drift confirms ‘active attack’ as more than $200 million leaves platform

  • Commentary: Solana-based decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Drift warned users about an “active attack” on its platform Wednesday, saying it had suspended withdrawals and deposits.

  • Arkham data said over $250 million had moved from Drift to an interim wallet, before moving to various other addresses. The Drift (DRIFT) token’s price fell over 20% in the hours after the exploit was first reported.

• Franklin Templeton launches crypto division with 250 Digital acquisition

  • Commentary: all Street asset management giant Franklin Templeton is launching a dedicated cryptocurrency division as it deepens its push into digital assets, anchored by a planned acquisition of crypto investment firm 250 Digital.

  • The move builds on Franklin Templeton’s existing digital asset business, which manages about $1.8 billion, and signals a shift toward offering more active crypto investment strategies alongside its current products The transaction also includes an experimental element: part of the consideration will be paid using BENJI tokens, linked to Franklin Templeton’s on-chain U.S. Government Money Fund.

• Citadel-backed EDX Markets applies for U.S. trust charter to expand institutional crypto services

  • Commentary: DX Markets, the crypto exchange backed by Citadel Securities, has applied for a national trust bank charter, marking a new step in its push to serve institutional clients.

  • The filing outlines a structure where custody and settlement sit within a regulated trust entity, separate from trading operations. By separating custody and settlement into a regulated trust, we’re building the kind of infrastructure banks and institutional investors expect as they scale into the space.

• Naoris Protocol’s quantum-resistant blockchain goes live as Bitcoin and Ethereum face ‘Q-Day’ threats

  • Commentary: The debut comes as legacy chains Bitcoin and Ethereum confront the threat of a “quantum apocalypse.” Known as Q-Day, this is the point when future quantum computers could crack the encryption securing most blockchains.

  • Because blockchain transactions such as those on Bitcoin and Ethereum are permanent, any weakness today could be exploited by future quantum computers with the necessary power. It is built from the start using post-quantum cryptography and algorithms approved by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology to protect accounts, transactions, and digital assets.

Upcoming Market Events

• April 10 – U.S. CPI

• April 29 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Things to Watch This Week (Mar 30 - Apr 3)

• U.S. employment report (March) - Apr 3

Markets this week will be driven by a combination of macro data and ongoing geopolitical developments. The March jobs report will be a key focus, alongside retail sales and consumer sentiment data, which should provide further clarity on the strength of the U.S. economy and potential Fed policy direction.

Random Musing This Week

Hyperliquid: Where Price Discovery Is Moving

A recent geopolitical shock offers a clear illustration of a broader structural shift underway in markets. Escalating tensions in the Middle East drove a sharp increase in demand for commodities such as oil and gold. With traditional futures venues like CME and ICE closed over the weekend, market participants had limited venues to express risk. In that vacuum, activity shifted to Hyperliquid, where trading continued uninterrupted. In effect, price discovery did not pause—it simply moved on-chain.

This dynamic highlights a key advantage of Hyperliquid: continuous, real-time markets that operate independently of traditional trading hours. Macro events, geopolitical shocks, and weekend news flows often occur when legacy systems are offline. Increasingly, during these periods, on-chain venues are not just complementary; they become the primary markets where prices are formed. The fact that major media outlets began referencing Hyperliquid pricing shortly after this event underscores the growing relevance of this shift.

Fundamentally, Hyperliquid’s growth is being driven by real usage rather than incentives. The platform is currently one of the top fee-generating chains in crypto, with revenue supported by sustained trading activity and rising open interest. Unlike many protocols whose activity is cyclical or incentive-driven, Hyperliquid’s metrics have continued to trend upward even in a softer market environment, pointing to durable demand for its infrastructure.

Taken together, these developments suggest that Hyperliquid is evolving beyond a crypto-native perpetual exchange into a core layer for global price discovery. As markets continue to globalize and operate around the clock, the ability to remain open during periods of stress or dislocation becomes increasingly valuable. In that context, Hyperliquid is becoming a key venue for price discovery during periods of volatility.

Recap of Top Stories (Mar 23 - Mar 27)

Interesting

• Morgan Stanley enters bitcoin ETF race with market-leading low fee

  • Commentary: Morgan Stanley plans to price its proposed spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) at 14 basis points, a level just below current low-cost options for similar products, according to an amended filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

  • Spot bitcoin ETFs offer near-identical exposure. Each fund holds bitcoin and aims to track its price. That leaves cost as one of the few variables investors and advisors can act on. Morgan Stanley’s scale adds another layer. Its wealth management arm oversees trillions in client assets and has one of the largest adviser networks in the industry.

• New York Stock Exchange taps Securitize to build its tokenized stock platform

  • Commentary: The two firms signed a memorandum of understanding to build NYSE’s planned Digital Trading Platform.

  • Securitize will serve as a design partner, focusing on how transfer agents — the entities that track ownership and handle corporate actions — operate when securities are issued and settled on blockchain rails. That tech would enable around-the-clock trading and near-instant settlements, similar to crypto markets.

• Franklin Templeton puts its $1.7 trillion weight behind Ondo to bring 24/7 stock trading to the blockchain

  • Commentary: The effort centers on Ondo Global Markets, a platform that issues blockchain-based tokens backed by real-world assets such as publicly traded stocks and exchange-traded funds.

  • These tokens track the value of underlying securities and can be held in digital wallets, allowing users to gain exposure without opening a brokerage account. Tokenization could reshape how assets move and who can access them.

• Invesco joins tokenization race as it takes over Superstate’s $900 million onchain fund

  • Commentary: Invesco, a U.S.-based asset manager overseeing $2.2 trillion in assets, will take over management of Superstate’s tokenized U.S. Treasury fund in a move that brings a large traditional asset manager deeper into blockchain-based finance.

  • The move marks Invesco’s formal entrance in the fast-growing, $12 billion tokenized U.S. Treasuries market, joining rival global asset managers such as BlackRock (BLK), Franklin Templeton and Fidelity Investments. Unlike traditional financial infrastructure, blockchain-based tokens allow near-instant settlement, transparent reserves and round-the-clock access.

• Coinbase, Fannie Mae bring crypto-backed mortgages to homebuyers

  • Commentary: U.S.-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) is working with Fannie Mae-approved mortgage firm Better Home & Finance Holding Co. (BETR), to enable crypto holders to use their digital assets as down payment collateral when buying a home.

  • Borrowers pledge bitcoin or the USDC stablecoin as collateral to fund their down payment, allowing them to keep their assets intact and avoid creating a taxable event by spending them.

• Ethereum Foundation prepares for quantum threat with new cryptography roadmap

  • Commentary: Ethereum isn’t waiting for quantum computers to become a problem before figuring out how to survive them.

  • Quantum computers are widely believed to will eventually break the public-key cryptography that secures ownership, authentication, and consensus across Ethereum. While quantum computing represents a threat category that attacks the cryptographic foundations rather than the physical infrastructure, the protocols that prepare earliest will be the most resilient when such a system eventually materializes.

Upcoming Market Events

• April 10 – U.S. CPI

• April 29 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Things to Watch This Week (Mar 23 - Mar 27)

• Strait of Hormuz

The week ahead will be all about the Iran war developments, and whether some kind of de-escalation can be negotiated soon. Continuation of this conflict is a lose-lose situation for both sides, so the world hopes for a solution to be found quickly. Data is no longer relevant for markets it seems.

Random Musing This Week

Bottom Watch: The Watch Continues

The past week has introduced the first meaningful challenge to Bitcoin’s recovery structure since the February low. As shown in the updated chart, price has broken down, losing the mid-range pivot around $68,500 and testing the bottom of the rising channel. This marks a shift from controlled recovery into early signs of structural weakness, with price now trading back toward the lower boundary of the broader range near $67,000.

The key development here is the loss of trend consistency. For several weeks, Bitcoin had been forming higher lows within a well-defined upward channel, signaling steady accumulation. That structure has now been disrupted. The rejection near the $74,000–$75,000 region, followed by a series of lower highs and the recent breakdown, suggests that the prior move higher may have been a corrective rebound rather than the start of a sustained trend reversal.

From a support perspective, the market is now approaching a critical zone. The $64,000–$67,000 range represents the next major demand cluster, aligning with prior consolidation, local lows, and the lower boundary of the broader structure. A clean hold of this region would keep the broader bottoming process intact, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin is still building a base following the February capitulation. However, a decisive break below this zone would significantly weaken the structure and open the door for a retest of the $60,000–$62,000 region, which remains the ultimate structural support from the initial flush.

Momentum is also beginning to reflect this shift. RSI has rolled over from mid-range levels and is now trending lower, indicating that buying pressure has faded and that sellers are regaining short-term control. Unlike the February move, however, momentum is not yet in deeply oversold territory, suggesting there may still be room for further downside before another exhaustion phase is reached.

In terms of structure, the current price action increasingly resembles a failed Wave B rebound, where the recovery rally stalls below major resistance and transitions into the next leg lower. The inability to reclaim and hold above $73,000, combined with the breakdown below $68,500, supports this interpretation. If this scenario plays out, the market may be entering the early stages of a Wave C move, which historically tends to be more directional and can extend toward lower support zones.

That said, the broader bottoming thesis is not yet invalidated. Bitcoin is still trading above the key structural floor established in early February, and the current move can still be interpreted as part of a wider consolidation range. The coming sessions will be critical in determining whether this is a standard pullback within a base or the beginning of a deeper corrective phase.

Recap of Top Stories (Mar 16 - Mar 20)

Interesting

• SEC approves Nasdaq’s move to support tokenized securities trading

  • Commentary: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved on Wednesday Nasdaq’s proposal to allow certain securities to trade in tokenized form, a significant milestone to integrate blockchain tech into U.S. equity markets.

  • Tokenized shares will trade alongside traditional shares on the same order book and at the same price. They will carry identical rights, use the same ticker and CUSIP and follow existing market rules. The process allows near-instant, around-the-clock trading with tokens tied to real-world assets.

• U.S. regional banks building tokenized deposit network on ZKsync to rival stablecoins

  • Commentary: A group of U.S. regional banks is developing the Cari Network, a tokenized deposit platform built on ZKsync, a layer-2 network, as lenders seek a regulated path to modernize digital payments.

  • It’s designed to let banks turn customer deposits into digital tokens that can move instantly between institutions — without those funds ever leaving the banking system. Cari says its tokens will still represent regular bank deposits, meaning they stay on banks’ balance sheets and remain subject to existing regulations and FDIC insurance.

• Senators say they’ve reached compromise on yield to advance crypto market bill

  • Commentary: The two U.S. senators negotiating a controversial provision in the crypto industry’s market structure bill have reportedly agreed on a compromise that could advance the industry’s top priority to the next stage in the Senate.

  • The lawmakers had worked toward an agreement that both protects innovation in this emerging technology as well as protects against the deposit flight concerns raised by many on both sides of the aisle.

• Morgan Stanley sets MSBT ticker and $1 million seed capital for bitcoin ETF

  • Commentary: Morgan Stanley wants its planned spot bitcoin ETF to trade under the ticker MSBT when it debuts.

  • The filing also revealed key fund details, which include a 10,000-share creation unit and a planned $1 million seed investment. Morgan Stanley’s move underscores Wall Street’s growing push into crypto, as established banks and custodians work to make bitcoin more accessible to mainstream investors.

• Bank of Korea adds two banks to digital won trials as real-world testing begins

  • Commentary: The Bank of Korea and nine commercial lenders began phase two of a digital won pilot, testing bank-issued deposit tokens backed by central bank infrastructure.

  • The institutions will now begin large-scale testing of the won-pegged deposit tokens built on a wholesale central bank digital currency (CBDC) layer. The government aims to begin disbursing subsidies in digital currency during the first half of this year.

• ECB seeks experts to help integrate digital euro into ATMs, card payment terminals

  • Commentary: The European Central Bank (ECB) is looking for experts to help draft rules about how a digital euro would work in everyday payments.

  • One workstream will define how ATMs and point-of-sale terminals process digital euro payments, including how they support offline transactions and existing payment standards. If approved, the central bank has signaled a potential rollout by 2029.

• Mastercard agrees to buy stablecoin platform BVNK for up to $1.8 billion

  • Commentary: Mastercard agreed to buy BVNK, a stablecoin infrastructure company, for as much as $1.8 billion as it looks to bolster its use of the digital assets for international payments.

  • By integrating BVNK’s technology, Mastercard aims to connect onchain payments to its global network, enabling use cases such as cross-border transfers, remittances and business-to-business payments. BVNK provides the technology to bridge traditional fiat systems with blockchain-based transactions, allowing businesses to move money in seconds across more than 130 countries.

Upcoming Market Events

• April 10 – U.S. CPI

• April 29 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Things to Watch This Week (Mar 16 - Mar 20)

• US Interest Rate Decision - Mar 18

Markets will be watching the upcoming Fed rate decision this week, though expectations are low for any policy shift. The more immediate macro variable remains the developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the direction of global oil prices. A sharp move in oil would have broader implications for inflation expectations and financial conditions. Energy markets will be the more important macro signal to monitor in the near term.

Random Musing This Week

Bottom Watch: Bitcoin Pushes Higher Within Recovery Channel

Bitcoin continued its gradual recovery, climbing back toward the $74,000 region and testing levels not seen since the initial February breakdown. Price action has been forming a steady upward channel since the capitulation low near $60,000, with higher lows and higher highs gradually rebuilding market structure.

The recent push above $73,000 is technically significant. This level previously acted as major support before the February breakdown and has now been reclaimed after several weeks of consolidation below it. While this does not yet confirm a full structural reversal, it represents the first meaningful shift in market behavior since the selloff began. If momentum continues, the next technical objective sits near the upper boundary of the recovery channel around $76,000 to $77,000, where price may encounter the first major test of the rally.

Despite this constructive short term structure, overhead resistance remains substantial. Above the channel, the next major supply zones sit at $83,000. This level will likely act as a significant barrier if the recovery continues, as a large amount of previously trapped supply may look to exit positions into strength.

Momentum indicators reflect the improving price structure. The Relative Strength Index has been trending upward alongside price, remaining comfortably above the mid range and signaling strengthening short term momentum. Importantly, the recovery has developed through gradual accumulation rather than sharp short covering spikes, which tends to produce more durable rallies if sustained. Nevertheless, we are in overbought territory, which could coincide with recovery exhaustion happening at the aforementioned price points, so a correction to the downside could present itself in the next few weeks.

In the near term, the key levels remain well defined. $73,000 now acts as the first support level to watch, followed by $68,500, which previously served as the upper boundary of the consolidation range. As long as price remains above these zones, the current recovery structure remains intact. On the upside, a move toward $76,000 to $77,000 would represent a natural technical test of the channel resistance and may determine whether the rally pauses or continues higher.

Recap of Top Stories (Mar 9 - Mar 13)

Interesting

• Tokenized assets exceed $25 billion after nearly quadrupling in a year

  • Commentary: Tokenized real-world assets, excluding stablecoins, have crossed $25 billion in onchain value, nearly quadrupling from roughly $6.4 billion a year earlier.

  • Despite the growth in supply, much of the activity reflects asset issuance rather than active trading. Whether those assets remain siloed in permissioned structures or begin integrating with the composable collateral, lending, and trading systems that define DeFi will likely determine whether tokenization scales as a parallel settlement layer for traditional finance or becomes something structurally different.

• Tether invests in Ark Labs to make Bitcoin ready for stablecoins and payments

  • Commentary: Tether, the crypto firm behind the most popular stablecoin USDT, said Thursday it has invested in Ark Labs to bring programmable payments to the Bitcoin network.

  • Arkade acts as an execution layer that developers can use to build services such as payment networks, lending tools and digital asset platforms. Bitcoin is the most liquid digital asset in the world, but it has lacked the programmable infrastructure that financial applications require,” said CEO of Ark Labs.

• BlackRock debuts staked ether ETF as demand grows for yield in crypto funds

  • Commentary: The fund marks the asset manager’s third crypto ETF and the first from BlackRock to incorporate staking.

  • ETHB will hold spot ether and stake a portion of those holdings on the Ethereum network, allowing investors to potentially earn rewards while benefiting from price movements. By incorporating staking, the ETF allows investors to keep the benefits of staking while gaining the operational advantages of an ETF structure.

• Binance, PayPal and Ripple join Mastercard’s massive new push into blockchain payments

  • Commentary: Mastercard has launched a new Crypto Partner Program that brings together more than 85 companies from across the digital asset and payments industries, an effort to link blockchain technology more directly with the infrastructure that underpins global commerce.

  • Mastercard said the initiative focuses on practical use cases where digital assets are already gaining traction, including cross-border transfers, business-to-business payments and global payouts.

• Nasdaq and Kraken are teaming up to let you trade tokenized stocks

  • Commentary: Nasdaq said it will work with crypto exchange Kraken to develop a system for issuing and trading tokenized versions of stocks and other exchange-traded products.

  • Under the plan, tokenized shares would give investors the same corporate governance rights as ordinary stockholders, including voting in proxy ballots and receiving dividends.

• SEC’s advisory group backs tokenized securities push, outlines how to keep it safe

  • Commentary: A committee that advises the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recommended the agency move forward on a tokenized-securities policy that would allow traders to cut out the kind of go-between settlement that Wall Street investment firms have relied on for decades.

  • The traditional approach to stock trading features brokers, transfer agents and centralized settlement databases and can take a day or more to execute, but in placing that same stock on-chain, the delivery of the tokenized security and the payment can happen as a single transaction.

Upcoming Market Events

• March 18 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

• March 21 - CME Options Expiry

Things to Watch This Week (Mar 9 - Mar 13)

• Core CPI / Initial Jobless Claims / Core PCE - Mar 11-13

While the above data prints will be crucial to this week’s market condition, the real focus will be on the Iran war, with the big question being just how much longer it will last. The danger exists if this war continues on for months, which is already not being taken well by traditional markets. We’ll need to see if things de-escalate quickly.

Random Musing This Week

Bottom Watch: Bitcoin Consolidates as Macro Sets the Stage for the Next Move
Bitcoin continues to trade in a broad consolidation following the sharp capitulation move in early February, with the market spending the past several weeks oscillating within a relatively well defined band between $64,000 support and $68,500 resistance. This type of prolonged compression suggests the market is still digesting the prior liquidation event rather than establishing a new directional trend.

The most notable move over the past week was the failed breakout attempt toward $73,000. After briefly reclaiming momentum and pushing above the upper boundary of the consolidation range, Bitcoin quickly reversed and fell back below resistance, reinforcing $73,000 as the first major overhead supply zone. This level previously acted as structural support before the February breakdown and now appears to be functioning as resistance, indicating that a meaningful amount of trapped supply likely remains in that region. Until price can reclaim and hold above this level, the broader recovery narrative remains tentative.

From a structural standpoint, the market continues to respect the lower boundary near $64,000, which has acted as the primary support level during the consolidation phase. Multiple tests of this zone have been absorbed, suggesting that buyers remain active there. The repeated defense of this level strengthens the case that the February flush into the $60,000 to $62,000 region represented a significant liquidity event and potential intermediate cycle low. However, consolidation alone does not confirm a new uptrend. Markets often spend extended periods building a base before the next sustained move emerges.

Momentum indicators also reflect the current equilibrium. The Relative Strength Index has drifted back toward the mid range after recovering from the deeply oversold conditions that accompanied the February selloff. This normalization is typical of a corrective phase following a capitulation event. In practical terms, it means that the market has largely worked off the extreme selling pressure but has not yet generated the type of bullish momentum typically associated with sustained trend reversals.

Looking ahead, the most important levels remain clearly defined. On the upside, $68,500 is the immediate pivot, followed by the more significant resistance zones at $73,000 and $83,000. A sustained break above $73,000 would mark the first meaningful structural improvement in market conditions and increase the probability that Bitcoin is transitioning from consolidation toward recovery. Conversely, failure to reclaim the upper range combined with a break below $64,000 would signal that the consolidation has resolved to the downside and could open the door for another test of the $60,000 to $62,000 support cluster.

For now, Bitcoin appears to be in the middle of a post capitulation consolidation phase, where volatility compresses and the market gradually determines whether the February low represents a durable floor or simply a temporary pause within a broader corrective structure. The resolution of the current range, particularly around the $64,000 to $68,500 corridor, will likely determine the direction of the next meaningful move.

Recap of Top Stories (Mar 2 - Mar 6)

Interesting

• New York Stock Exchange owner values crypto exchange OKX at $25 billion in new partnership

  • Commentary: Global trading giant Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) began a strategic partnership with cryptocurrency trading firm OKX to introduce tokenized stocks and crypto futures products.

  • ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, also made a strategic investment valuing the San Jose, California-based company at $25 billion. The deal will see ICE license OKX’s spot crypto prices for crypto futures products, and OKX offer ICE futures and tokenized equities, the companies said on Thursday.

• Kraken becomes first crypto company to secure Fed master account access

  • Commentary: Kraken has secured a Federal Reserve “master account,” giving its banking arm direct access to the Fed’s core payment systems and making it the first crypto firm to operate on the same rails as traditional financial institutions.

  • The account provides direct access to Fedwire, a major interbank payment network that processes trillions of dollars in transfers each day. Direct access changes that flow as the firm can now settle payments itself, which may speed up deposits and withdrawals for large traders and institutional clients.

• Morgan Stanley taps Coinbase and BNY for custody in proposed Bitcoin ETF

  • Commentary: Morgan Stanley (MS) has filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) a prospectus outlining the structure of the proposed Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust.

  • The fund plans to use Coinbase Custody (COIN) and the Bank of New York Mellon (BNY) to safeguard its bitcoin holdings. The ETF itself will be structured as a passive vehicle designed to track the price of bitcoin by holding the cryptocurrency directly rather than using derivatives or leverage.

• CFTC chief Selig to clear path for U.S. perpetual futures in coming weeks

  • Commentary: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Mike Selig, and his agency will soon provide guidance on how that business should be handled.

  • Selig’s agency is “working towards getting professional futures, true professional futures here in the U.S. within the next month or so,” One of the things the two are pursuing are “innovation exceptions” to allow for crypto experimentation without fear of regulatory crackdown.

• Visa and Bridge plan stablecoin-linked card expansion to over 100 countries

  • Commentary: Visa and Stripe-owned stablecoin firm Bridge have expanded globally the stablecoin-linked card issuance product unveiled last year.

  • Bridge-enabled stablecoin-linked cards are now live in 18 countries, using crypto platforms like Phantom and MetaMask, with planned expansion to over 100 countries across Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East by end of year. Expanding our work with Bridge gives us one more way to bring the speed, transparency and programmability of stablecoins directly into the settlement process.

• Ripple expands payments platform into end-to-end stablecoin infrastructure as processed volume tops $100 billion

  • Commentary: The company shared with CoinDesk on Wednesday a press release that outlines a major expansion of Ripple Payments which turns the platform into a full-stack infrastructure layer for fiat and stablecoin money movement.

  • The result is that a fintech doing cross-border payouts no longer needs one provider for custody, another for foreign exchange, a third for stablecoin liquidity, and a fourth for local payout rails. Meanwhile, Ripple said the platform has now processed more than $100 billion in total volume.

Upcoming Market Events

• March 12 - CPI Release

• March 19 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Things to Watch This Week (Feb 23 - Feb 27)

• CME Expiry - Feb 27

The CME Bitcoin and Ether futures expiry is the key event to watch this week. With markets already technically fragile, the unwind of large futures positions could amplify volatility and accelerate whichever directional trend is already in motion.

Random Musing This Week

Bottom Watch: Update

Two weeks removed from the initial capitulation flush into the $60,000 region, Bitcoin’s price structure has evolved into a clearer consolidation phase. The updated 4-hour chart shows a defined compression range forming between roughly $64,000 and $68,500, with repeated attempts to reclaim the upper boundary failing to produce follow-through. Rather than impulsive recovery, price action has shifted into tight rotational movement, suggesting balance between dip buyers and overhead supply.

The most important development is that the $62,000–$64,000 support cluster continues to hold, even after multiple retests. The recent sweep toward $64,000 was quickly absorbed, producing a sharp intraday bounce. This reinforces that the early February flush was likely a significant liquidity event rather than the beginning of an uncontrolled cascade. However, stabilization alone does not imply trend reversal. The market has not yet reclaimed the breakdown pivot at $68,500, and more importantly remains well below the broader structural resistance at $73,000 and $83,000.

From a wave structure standpoint, the selloff into $60,000 still fits the profile of a terminal impulsive leg. What has followed resembles a developing corrective pattern, potentially forming a base. If this is a classic bottoming process, we would expect continued range compression followed by a breakout through $68,500 and then a challenge of $73,000. Failure to reclaim those levels would increase the probability that the current range resolves lower and that the $60,000 region faces another structural test.

For now, Bitcoin is no longer in panic mode, but it is not in recovery mode either. The market has transitioned from capitulation to compression. The next decisive move will likely occur on a break of either $68,500 to the upside or $64,000 to the downside, with those levels serving as the near-term inflection points for determining whether this base holds or expands into a deeper corrective phase.

Recap of Top Stories (Feb 16 - Feb 20)

Interesting

• Aave Labs Proposes ‘Aave Will Win’ Plan to Send 100% of Product Revenue to DAO

  • Commentary: Aave Labs has introduced a new governance proposal that would shape the next chapter of one of crypto’s largest lending platforms, and send all revenue from Aave-branded products back to its community treasury.

  • If approved, additional proposals will outline how V4 will be activated and how funding will be structured. Taken together, the framework signals Aave’s ambition to evolve from a leading DeFi lending protocol into a broader piece of global financial infrastructure governed by its DAO.

• Institutional crypto platform BlockFills reportedly halts withdrawals, restricts trading

  • Commentary: Amid sharp, mostly downward volatility in crypto markets, BlockFills has halted withdrawals and restricted trading on its platform.

  • In light of recent market and financial conditions, and to further the protection of clients and the firm, BlockFills took the action last week of temporarily suspending client deposits and withdrawals. The action is reminiscent of 2022’s crypto winter, which saw numerous platforms forced to suspend withdrawals as the bear market deepened, with many of them ultimately collapsing.

• Hong Kong regulator approves first crypto company license since June

  • Commentary: Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) granted a crypto license to Victory Fintech (VDX), an affiliate entity of publicly listed financial services firm Victory Securities (8540).

  • Victory won permission to operate a digital asset trading platform on Friday. The regime has earned a reputation for being one of the strictest among major financial jurisdictions.

• SocGen taps XRP Ledger for euro stablecoin distribution

  • Commentary: Societe Generale’s digital assets arm SG-FORGE has deployed its euro stablecoin, EUR CoinVertible, on the XRP Ledger, expanding beyond its existing integrations on Ethereum and Solana as competition heats up in Europe’s regulated stablecoin race.

  • EUR CoinVertible is issued under French digital asset rules and is backed 1 to 1 by cash deposits or high-quality securities. For XRPL, the listing is another institutional credibility win as the network positions itself as a compliant venue for tokenized finance.

• Dubai takes next step to make real estate flips instant in $16 billion tokenization plan

  • Commentary: The Dubai Land Department (DLD) and tokenization firm Ctrl Alt unveiled a secondary market for real estate-backed tokens, enabling the resale of $5 million in fractional property ownership.

  • Transactions will take place on a regulated distribution platform, recorded on the XRP Ledger blockchain and secured by Ripple Custody. DLD, a government agency for the real estate industry, set out a roadmap last year to tokenize 7% — or about $16 billion — of Dubai’s real estate market by 2033.

• Trump-linked World Liberty taps BlackRock-backed Securitize for hotel tokenization

  • Commentary: World Liberty Financial is tapping real-world asset specialist Securitize to help tokenize loan interests tied to the Trump International Hotel and Resort in the Maldives.

  • Rather than direct equity in the properties, investors will be able to buy tokens tied to loan revenue. Eligible accredited investors will receive a fixed yield and payments linked to the loan’s performance.

Upcoming Market Events

• Feb 27 - CME Expiry

• March 12 - CPI Release

• March 19 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Things to Watch This Week (Feb 9 - Feb 13)

• US Initial Jobless Claims / CPI - Feb 12-13

Initial jobless claims on February 12 and CPI on February 13 will serve as key macro checkpoints, providing updated signals on labor market strength and inflation trajectory. With Bitcoin currently testing major structural support, deviations from expectations in either direction could act as catalysts for increased volatility, influencing liquidity conditions and broader risk sentiment..

Random Musing This Week

Bottom Watch: Signs of Capitulation Emerging as Bitcoin Tests Structural Support

Bitcoin’s sharp breakdown into early February marked a decisive shift in market structure, with price falling from the mid-$90,000 range to briefly test levels just above $60,000 before staging a modest recovery. As shown in the chart, the speed and magnitude of the decline bear the hallmarks of a capitulation event, with price slicing through multiple support zones in rapid succession before stabilizing near a key structural level. This type of move is typically associated with forced liquidations, leveraged position unwinds, and the transfer of supply from weak to stronger hands.

From a technical standpoint, momentum indicators support the view that the market has reached an extreme condition. The Relative Strength Index (RSI - bottom indicator) fell into deeply oversold territory during the breakdown. Historically, such oversold readings do not necessarily mark the exact bottom, but they do signal that selling pressure has become stretched and that the probability of reflexive bounces and accumulation increases. The subsequent stabilization and slight recovery in RSI suggests that downward momentum may be beginning to exhaust itself, even if broader trend structure remains weak.

The wave structure also points toward a potential capitulation phase. The recent decline unfolded in a clear impulsive pattern, culminating in a final accelerated selloff that pushed price rapidly into the $60,000 region before reversing sharply higher. This type of terminal move is often associated with the final stage of a corrective sequence, where panic selling peaks and liquidity gaps are filled. While this does not guarantee that the ultimate cycle bottom has formed, it does indicate that a significant portion of forced selling may have already occurred.

Key levels remain well defined. The $60,000–$62,000 range now represents the most important structural support zone, aligning with historical cost basis clusters and the area where buyers aggressively stepped in during the recent flush. A sustained hold above this level would strengthen the case that Bitcoin is entering a broader accumulation phase. On the upside, reclaiming the $73,000 level, which previously served as support before the breakdown, would represent the first sign of structural recovery and reduce the likelihood of immediate continuation lower.

At the same time, Bitcoin remains below multiple prior support zones that have now become resistance, particularly the $83,000 and $92,000 levels, which defined the previous trading range. Until those levels are reclaimed, the broader trend should be viewed as corrective rather than bullish.

Taken together, the combination of deeply oversold momentum conditions, impulsive capitulation-like price action, and emerging buyer support suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning into the later stages of a bottoming process. Historically, this phase is characterized by increased volatility and range formation as the market absorbs supply. Whether the recent low ultimately proves to be the cycle bottom or simply an intermediate floor will depend on Bitcoin’s ability to hold structural support and gradually reclaim higher resistance levels in the weeks ahead.

Recap of Top Stories (Feb 2 - Feb 6)

Interesting

• Wall Street giant CME Group is eyeing its own ‘CME Coin,’ CEO says

  • Commentary: CME Group CEO Terry Duffy has suggested the derivatives giant is exploring launching its own cryptocurrency.

  • In response to a question from Morgan Stanley’s Michael Cyprys during the company’s latest earnings call, Duffy confirmed the firm is exploring “initiatives with our own coin that we could potentially put on a decentralized network.” While CME Group has previously flagged tokenization as a general area of interest, CEO Terry Duffy’s comments this week mark the first time the exchange has explicitly floated the concept of a proprietary, CME-issued asset running on a decentralized network.

• Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, prepares to issue crypto-backed loans

  • Commentary: Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, is moving toward offering loans secured by cryptocurrency and said Friday it is prepared to coordinate with the country’s central bank on shaping the necessary regulatory framework.

  • The bank issued the country’s first bitcoin-backed loan to one of its largest bitcoin miners, IntelionData, calling the transaction a pilot and suggesting it was keen to issue more in the future. Sberbank said the planned lending program would target not only mining companies but also businesses that hold cryptocurrency on their balance sheets.

• MetaMask integrates Ondo to offer 200+ tokenized U.S. stocks inside crypto wallet

  • Commentary: MetaMask, the popular self-custodial wallet, has added access to tokenized U.S. stocks, exchange-traded funds and commodities through a new integration with Ondo Finance’s Global Markets platform.

  • The launch marks one of the first times tokenized U.S. equities and ETFs have been made natively available through a major self-custodial wallet, highlighting how real-world asset tokenization might become more closely integrated with traditional financial infrastructure.

• Tether invests $100 million in U.S. crypto bank Anchorage, valued at $4.2 billion

  • Commentary: Tether, the company behind the world’s largest stablecoin USDT said it has invested $100 million in Anchorage Digital, a federally regulated digital asset bank.

  • The two companies already had a working relationship, with Anchorage serving as the banking partner behind Tether’s USAT stablecoin, designed specifically for the U.S. market to comply with local regulations. The investment gives Tether a foothold in the fast-growing U.S. stablecoin infrastructure, which is moving towards regulated players after the GENIUS Act was written into law last year.

• ProShares unveils first U.S. ETF that lets you buy the top 20 cryptos at once

  • Commentary: ProShares unveiled the first U.S.-listed exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to target the performance of the CoinDesk 20 Index, expanding options for investors seeking broad exposure to crypto markets.

  • The CoinDesk 20 Crypto ETF (KRYP) is the first ETF tied to the benchmark of 20 of the largest and most liquid digital assets. “As the cryptocurrency market has matured, investors have increasingly looked beyond single-asset exposure,” CEO Michael Sapir said in a statement, describing KRYP as a way to access the broader asset class through one ticker.

• Hong Kong will start granting stablecoin issuer licenses in March: Reuters

  • Commentary: Hong Kong’s financial watchdog will grant a first batch of “very few” stablecoin issuer licenses in March, according to Reuters.

  • Eddie Yue, the chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), said he expects to issue the first series of stablecoin issuer licences in March. The head of the HKMA highlighted that the criteria for stablecoin issuer license approval assessments focused on issues such as risk management, anti-money laundering measures, and the backing assets of the stablecoins.

Upcoming Market Events

• February 10 - Consensus Hong Kong 2026

• February 11 - CPI Release

• February 15 - U.S. Corporate Estimated Tax Payment Deadline

Things to Watch This Week (Feb 2 - Feb 6)

• US January jobs report - Feb 6

Friday’s jobs data is the key macro checkpoint this week that could materially influence market direction because it is the first major macro datapoint of the month and often sets the tone for risk assets into mid-February as well as feeds directly into expectations around Federal Reserve policy.

Random Musing This Week

Key Levels That Matter for Bitcoin This Week

The price action at the end of January and into early February has become increasingly important in framing Bitcoin’s medium-term cycle risk. After failing to reclaim key moving averages and rolling over from the mid-to-upper range, BTC accelerated lower in a manner that closely resembles the early stages of the 2022 bear market. In both cases, price spent several weeks chopping below declining trend resistance before breaking down decisively, suggesting exhaustion rather than consolidation. The inability to hold rebounds and the speed of the recent leg lower indicate that sellers remain in control and that dip buying has weakened materially.

What stands out in the current structure is how closely the move mirrors the 2022 bear cycle fractal shown in the chart. In that prior cycle, Bitcoin experienced a sharp initial drawdown, followed by a reflex bounce that failed beneath major moving averages, before entering a prolonged phase of lower lows and compressed volatility. The current breakdown below the late January range and the rejection near declining averages echo that same transition. If this analog continues to hold, the market may be entering a phase where downside extensions occur not through panic, but through persistent pressure and failed relief rallies.

Should this bear cycle continuation scenario play out, price action is likely to remain volatile but directionally biased lower, with rallies struggling to reclaim prior support zones. Such conditions tend to persist until forced sellers are largely exhausted and longer-term holders begin to absorb supply at materially lower levels.

However, this does not imply disorderly collapse, but rather a shift in regime. If Bitcoin continues to track this historical pattern, the coming months could see price stabilize at lower ranges while sentiment resets and capital reallocates. That process, while uncomfortable, has historically laid the groundwork for eventual cycle bottoms and future accumulation phases.

The key takeaway from the recent price action is that Bitcoin is no longer behaving like an asset in consolidation, but rather one testing whether the current cycle has fully transitioned into a sustained bearish trend. In the coming weeks, we’ll need to see if pivot levels at $73k and $68.5k can provide enough support for buyers to step in and allow for BTC price to rebound in the interim.

Recap of Top Stories (Jan 26 - Jan 30)

Interesting

• Crypto bill clears U.S. Senate milestone despite Democrat opposition

  • Commentary: A U.S. Senate committee formally advanced the crypto market structure bill on Thursday, moving to a new stage with the legislation that the industry hopes will help it reach a new plateau of investor confidence and involvement.

  • The resulting Republican-driven result will still need to gather significant Democratic support before it can eventually clear the structural hurdles of the Senate. After the legislation cleared the Senate Agriculture Committee on Thursday, it eventually needs to do the same in the Banking Committee.

• The market for tokenized equities has exploded by almost 3,000% in a single year

  • Commentary: Tokenized equities are approaching the $1 billion mark, underscoring how real-world asset (RWA) tokenization is moving beyond pilots and into a fast-developing segment of crypto market infrastructure.

  • The rise reflects growing demand for blockchain-based access to traditional financial assets, as firms increasingly explore tokenization as a way to improve settlement efficiency, broaden market access and build always-on financial products. With tokenized equities nearing $1 billion, the sector is emerging as a bellwether for how quickly RWAs can scale — and how much institutional adoption may hinge on regulation, custody and market structure catching up with blockchain innovation.

• Tether takes the fight to Circle with a new ‘made in America’ stablecoin

  • Commentary: Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin USDT, is making its move into the U.S. domestic market with the launch of USAT, a dollar-backed token issued by Anchorage Digital Bank.

  • The launch, announced Tuesday, represents Tether’s first product specifically designed to operate within the U.S. federal stablecoin framework established under the GENIUS Act. For years, Circle’s USDC has been the preferred stablecoin for U.S. institutions due to its transparency and domestic alignment.

• BlackRock doubles down on bitcoin fund offerings with income-focused filing

  • Commentary: BlackRock is moving deeper into the cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund market with a plan to offer income from bitcoin exposure.

  • The proposed fund would actively manage exposure to bitcoin, either directly or through shares of BlackRock’s existing iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), while generating income by selling call options on that exposure. Still, BlackRock’s entry stands out for its scale and ties to IBIT, already the dominant spot bitcoin ETF with over $69.7 billion in assets.

• Nomura’s Laser Digital applies for U.S. national trust bank to offer crypto custody

  • Commentary: Laser Digital, the digital assets arm of Japanese investment bank Nomura, said it filed an application with the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to open a federally regulated national trust bank.

  • The proposed Laser Digital National Trust Bank would be based in the U.S. and serve institutional clients with custody for cryptocurrencies and U.S. government securities. If approved, Laser Digital would join a small group of federally regulated crypto-native institutions able to offer these services under direct supervision from a national regulator.

• Robinhood is investing in crypto trading platform Talos at $1.5 billion valuation

  • Commentary: Robinhood (HOOD) is investing in Talos, an institutional trading technology provider for digital assets, in an extended Series B funding round that values the New York-based company at around $1.5 billion.

  • Talos originally raised $105 million in a Series B funding round in May 2022, valuing the firm at $1.25 billion. Robinhood has been expanding its reach in crypto and blockchain infrastructure as part of its broader expansion strategy.

Upcoming Market Events

• February 10 - Consensus Hong Kong 2026

• February 11 - CPI Release

• February 15 - U.S. Corporate Estimated Tax Payment Deadline

Things to Watch This Week (Jan 26 - Jan 30)

• FOMC Interest Rate Decision - Jan 28

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this week is worth watching, even if no change to the headline rate is almost unanimously priced in for this meeting. What markets will be paying close attention to is Jerome Powell’s commentary and the Fed’s forward guidance. With inflation still above target and a slowing labor market, policymakers are signaling a pause for now, but futures markets suggest a possible easing later in 2026. The press conference could clarify the sequencing and timing of future cuts as well as the FOMC’s view of underlying economic strength.

Random Musing This Week

Bitcoin Technical Analysis Update

Overnight, we lost an ascending support line (black dotted line) that bulls would have preferred was held in order to make an argument for more bullish upside since BTC broke down from an interim high of $97k and below $90k.

While the breakdown is not an encouraging sign, we can make the case for a potential false breakout that will hopefully see BTC reverse course in the coming weeks. First, we saw an encouraging rebound off a pivot level around $85k (red range), which is our next level of support that bulls will want to see hold in order to start believing in a near-term reversal any time soon. Also, we’re currently showing an oversold RSI on the 4-hr timeframe, which could serve as further confluence that $85k will serve as a short-term bottom. Additionally, RSI is also showing a modest bullish divergence, where price has made a lower low while RSI has made a higher low. As long as price maintains above this range, the market posture stays biased toward accumulation rather than breakdown.

A break below this cluster would raise the risk of deeper retracement and shift focus to secondary support around $83,000, which served as resistance earlier in the 2024 rally and could function as a pivot level now for corrective flows. But if we’re to experience any further downside, it could have us seeing BTC slip below $80k. A sustained break under $78,000 would begin to undermine the recent bullish structure for the first time in several weeks, opening room for broader range extension lower and seeing us potentially hit the next major level of support sitting at $73k.

Recap of Top Stories (Jan 19 - Jan 23)

Interesting

• NYSE targets weekend investors with new blockchain platform for 24/7 stock trading

  • Commentary: The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Monday announced plans to introduce an around the clock blockchain-based tokenized stocks and exchange-traded funds trading venue later this year.

  • The new platform will enable tokenized trading experiences, including 24/7 operations, instant settlement, orders sized in dollar amounts, and stablecoin-based funding.

• Ethereum Foundation makes post quantum security a top priority as new team forms

  • Commentary: The Ethereum Foundation (EF), a nonprofit organization that supports Ethereum’s development, is turning its long running post quantum research into a public engineering push, forming a dedicated Post Quantum team and calling the effort a top strategic priority for the network.

  • Drake framed leanVM as a core part of Ethereum’s broader approach to post quantum security, arguing that timelines are accelerating and that Ethereum should move into a build phase rather than keep work in the background. The bigger issue for large networks is not a single breakthrough moment but the time it takes to ship a safe transition, update wallets and move users onto new formats without breaking daily usage.

• Japan bond market panic spills into crypto; ‘yields will keep rising until something breaks’

  • Commentary: The relentless surge in long-dated JGB yields signals that one of the world’s most reliable liquidity backstops is fading, with consequences that extend well beyond Tokyo.

  • Higher JGB yields raise the opportunity cost of funding carry trades and overseas investments that for decades have relied on Japan as the world’s cheapest source of capital. Whichever route the Bank of Japan takes, the outcome is the same — tighter global liquidity.

• BlackRock’s IBIT powers new bitcoin annuity for U.S. retirees via Delaware Life

  • Commentary: Delaware Life Insurance Company said it has become the first U.S. insurer to offer a cryptocurrency-linked investment within a fixed index annuity (FIA) after partnering with BlackRock.

  • The index blends U.S. equities with bitcoin exposure through BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), targeting a 12% volatility level using dynamic cash allocations designed to limit bitcoin’s price swings. This FIA offers exposure to both stocks and bitcoin, without putting any of the investor’s original contribution at risk.

• Senate Agriculture publishes own version of market structure bill without bipartisan support

  • Commentary: Frontline crypto developers wouldn’t be subject to treatment as regulated financial firms in the latest U.S. crypto markets legislation, according to bill text that emerged on Wednesday in advance of next week’s planned Senate Agriculture Committee hearing.

  • As the Senate legislation stands, it maintains the legal liability shield for developers — as long as they don’t control customers’ assets — and it elevates the Commodity Futures Trading Commission toward its expected role as the watchdog of the spot markets for tokens such as bitcoin that aren’t securities.

• Ondo Finance Brings 200+ Tokenized U.S. Stocks and ETFs to Solana

  • Commentary: Ondo Finance is expanding its tokenized equities business to Solana, bringing more than 200 tokenized U.S. stocks and exchange-traded funds to the high-speed blockchain for the first time, the company said Wednesday.

  • With the Solana deployment, Ondo becomes the largest real-world asset (RWA) issuer on the network by asset count, the company claims. Ondo’s tokenized stocks are built to address that by bringing liquidity inherited from traditional exchange venues and a broad catalog of stocks and ETFs onchain.

Upcoming Market Events

• January 28 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

• January 30 - CME Expiry

• February 11 - CPI Release

Things to Watch This Week (Jan 19 - Jan 23)

• Trump Davos Speech and PCE Inflation

Markets face a shortened trading week due to the MLK holiday, with attention on Trump’s Davos speech, the latest PCE inflation data, and key earnings from companies like Netflix and Intel, which could set the tone for risk sentiment.

Random Musing This Week

Korean Regulatory Developments

Over the past week, South Korea’s crypto regulatory landscape has continued to evolve rapidly, with three landmark developments that together signal a shift toward institutional participation and broader market integration.

First, the Financial Services Commission finalized guidelines that end a nine-year ban on corporate cryptocurrency investment, allowing listed companies and professional investors to allocate up to 5% of their equity capital annually into digital assets. Under the proposed framework, eligible crypto investments will be limited to the top 20 tokens by market capitalization traded on South Korea’s five licensed exchanges. This change opens meaningful institutional access to a market that had been overwhelmingly retail dominated, with an estimated 3,500 entities set to gain participation rights under the new rules.

Next, the country has advanced its Security Token Offering (STO) framework as part of the Digital Asset Basic Act. Under the updated rules, STOs will be formally recognized within South Korea’s regulated capital markets, subject to licensing, disclosure, and compliance standards similar to traditional securities. For issuers and investors alike, this marks STOs as a legitimate instrument, potentially unlocking alternate funding channels for smaller enterprises while bringing greater investor protections.

The third significant development is the government’s announcement that it will ban unregistered cryptocurrency exchanges from operating in the domestic market. The timeline for enforcement is expected to accelerate throughout 2026, with exchanges required to complete registration, compliance controls, and reporting systems or face suspension of operations.

Over time, this dynamic could shift the composition of inflows. Instead of fast-moving retail speculation dominating turnover, a larger share of activity may come from regulated entities deploying balance sheet capital, participating in tokenized securities, or engaging in longer-horizon accumulation strategies.

The figure of roughly 3,500 entities refers to a group primarily of listed companies, large unlisted corporations, financial institutions, and other professional investors that were previously prohibited from holding or transacting in digital assets. The estimate is derived from the number of KOSPI and KOSDAQ listed firms, alongside registered financial institutions and certain professional investment entities.

At a high level, 5 percent of the combined equity capital of the roughly 3,500 eligible Korean entities represents a very large potential pool of capital. If you aggregate the equity capital of the aforementioned entities, estimates generally land in the range of $1.9-2.3 trillion in total equity capital. Taking 5 percent of that base implies a theoretical ceiling of roughly $90 to $110 billion that could eventually be allocated to crypto assets under the new framework. To put that potential corporate allocation in context, total current crypto ETF AUM is roughly $174 billion dollars.

In practice, actual deployment would almost certainly be far smaller, especially in the early years. However, while only a subset of these entities is likely to deploy capital meaningfully, even limited participation could materially change the quality and durability of capital flows by shifting activity away from short-term retail speculation and toward balance-sheet driven, longer-horizon allocation. Even if only 10 percent of eligible firms participated at an average allocation of 1 percent of equity, that would still translate into several trillion won of new, structurally long-term capital entering the market.

The key takeaway is not the headline maximum number, but the order of magnitude. This policy shifts Korea’s crypto market from being almost entirely retail driven to one where corporate balance sheets could, over time, represent a meaningful marginal buyer. Even modest participation rates could rival or exceed historical net inflows during peak retail cycles, with the added difference that corporate capital tends to move more slowly, concentrate on large cap assets, and remain invested for longer horizons.

Recap of Top Stories (Jan 12 - Jan 16)

Interesting

• South Korea proposes 5% limit for listed firms’ crypto exposure

  • Commentary: South Korea’s Financial Services Commission is considering a rule that would cap corporate cryptocurrency investments at 5% of a company’s equity capital, as the country moves toward easing its long-standing restrictions on institutional crypto trading.

  • Under the proposal, eligible firms would be allowed to allocate up to 5% of equity capital per year to digital assets, limited to the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market value. Authorities are also expected to include trade execution guardrails, including split trading rules and price limits, to manage market impact as liquidity expands.

• Citrea unveils U.S. Treasury-backed stablecoin for its Bitcoin ecosystem

  • Commentary: Citrea, a layer-2 blockchain for Bitcoin, introduced a U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin designed to serve as a liquidity standard on its ecosystem.

  • Stablecoin liquidity remains a core bottleneck for Bitcoin-focused decentralized finance (DeFi), where capital often gets split across bridged versions of dollar tokens. “Fragmentation is a symptom of bridging, and we solve it by design: ctUSD is natively issued on Citrea,” said Orkun Mahir Kilic.

• Bybit Pay links with digital wallets Yape, Plin to offer crypto payments in Peru

  • Commentary: Bybit Pay said it reached an agreement allowing its users to make crypto payments through Yape and Plin, Peru’s most widely used digital wallets.

  • Together, the two systems served about 28 million users in 2024 and handled nearly 90% of Peru’s in-person digital wallet transactions. Bybit Pay’s integration allows customers to spend stablecoins like USDT and USDC or major cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ether with transactions settling in Peruvian soles for the recipient.

• Societe Generale works with Swift to settle tokenize bonds using cash and stablecoins

  • Commentary: The cryptocurrency and stablecoin-focused arm of French bank Societe Generale, SG-FORGE, is working with Swift, the global interbank messaging system, to exchange and settle tokenized bonds using both fiat and digital currencies.

  • The transaction was carried out using SG-FORGE’s EURCV stablecoin, the first MiCA-compliant stablecoin natively compatible with Swift, which played an orchestration role across blockchain platforms and existing payment systems.

• Visa teams up with BVNK to launch stablecoin payouts

  • Commentary: Visa is integrating stablecoin infrastructure from BVNK into its Visa Direct platform, expanding how its $1.7 trillion real-time payments network can move money globally.

  • The partnership, announced Wednesday, allows businesses in select markets to pre-fund payments in stablecoins and send payouts directly to recipients’ digital wallets.

• Germany’s second-largest lender DZ Bank secures retail crypto trading MiCA license

  • Commentary: Germany’s DZ Bank revealed it received regulatory approval from BaFin under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, enabling it to offer meinKrypto, a digital asset trading platform targeted at retail clients through the cooperative banking system.

  • More than 71% of cooperative banks in Germany’s cooperative banking association are interested in offering crypto services to private customers, according to a September 2025 study by Genoverband.

• Tokenization firms reject Coinbase’s crypto bill equities claims

  • Commentary: A stalled crypto market structure bill and a high-profile pullback from Coinbase aren’t slowing momentum for firms building around tokenized securities.

  • Industry estimates suggest that tokenized versions of real-world assets — everything from funds, bonds, equities and other assets — could reach multiple trillions of dollars over the next decade. That projected scale helps explain why tokenization firms are forging ahead regardless of the delay.

Upcoming Market Events

• January 28 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

• January 30 - CME Expiry

• February 11 - CPI Release

Things to Watch This Week (Jan 12 - Jan 16)

• Trump Tariff Ruling

Markets are watching for a potential U.S. Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariff authority, which could arrive mid-week after last week’s delay. Any ruling—or another postponement—could quickly shift risk sentiment given the implications for trade policy, inflation, and fiscal dynamics.

Random Musing This Week

MSCI vs Bitcoin Treasury Companies

This week MSCI delayed its plan to remove Bitcoin-heavy treasury companies (like Strategy) from its global equity indexes. Strategy’s stock saw a short-term bounce, but the issue is far from resolved. MSCI didn’t abandon the idea. It simply chose to build a broader framework first.

Instead of targeting Bitcoin directly, MSCI announced it will review how it treats “non-operating companies” — firms whose balance sheets, not operations, drive shareholder returns. That category doesn’t just include crypto treasury firms, but also holding companies, royalty vehicles, SPACs, and other investment-like public entities. In effect, MSCI is now trying to define the point at which a company stops being an operating business and starts functioning like a fund.

Strategy pushed back by pointing out the inconsistency:
If holding cash, gold, or foreign currency doesn’t disqualify a company, why should Bitcoin? MSCI heard the argument — but instead of dropping the rule, it is now planning to use financial-statement-based tests to determine whether a firm is truly operating or simply warehousing assets.

Indexes like MSCI are designed to serve as neutral reflections of the market. But when they begin to define how much of a balance sheet can be treated as “strategy” versus “operations,” they also begin to play a more active role in shaping how companies are classified and compared.

And that process is just beginning. Over the coming months, as MSCI develops new classification rules, this issue is likely to resurface — with real consequences for Bitcoin treasury companies and the capital that tracks them.

Recap of Top Stories (Jan 05 - Jan 09)

Interesting

• JPMorgan expands blockchain goals, plans to build ‘interoperable digital money’

  • Commentary: JPMorgan wants to build its own “regulated, interoperable digital money” that can move near-instantly and securely across financial markets.

  • JPMorgan is already laying out plans to expand its JPM Coin deposit token beyond Base, the Ethereum Layer 2 network built by Coinbase, to Digital Asset’s privacy-focused Canton Network, and eventually to additional blockchain platforms. JPM Coin represents U.S. dollar deposits held at J.P. Morgan and lets institutional clients make payments using a digital token on distributed ledgers.

• Polygon Labs unveils ‘Open Money Stack’ to power borderless stablecoin payments

  • Commentary: Polygon Labs unveiled the Open Money Stack, a new modular framework intended to support stablecoin-based payments and streamline cross-border value transfers.

  • The stack, which is expected to launch later this year, is designed to work with different blockchains and be customizable, allowing financial institutions and fintech firms to integrate components such as onchain settlement, fiat access and compliance tools. Rather than building a closed network, the Open Money Stack is designed to be interoperable, meaning businesses can use only the parts they need and still connect with other networks.

• Tokenized Brazilian credit card debt offers 13% yield through BlackOpal’s GemStone platform

  • Commentary: Onchain asset management and payments platform BlackOpal said it will buy the debt at a discount, tokenize it on its GemStone platform using the Plume Network blockchain and sell it on to institutional buyers worldwide.

  • In exchange, merchants receive 95 cents on the dollar immediately instead of waiting months for credit card payments. Token buyers could earn an annualized 13% yield (USD-denominated and FX-hedged), with card companies covering any customer defaults.

• Fireblocks expands into crypto financial reporting with $130 million TRES acquisition

  • Commentary: Digital asset infrastructure firm Fireblocks said it bought TRES Finance, a crypto accounting and financial reporting platform for an undisclosed amount, in a bid to close the gap between blockchain-based operations and traditional finance systems.

  • As the cryptocurrency market matures, companies are moving from what has largely been a grey area into a regulated space. TRES is designed to help crypto-native companies and traditional institutions generate structured, compliant financial records from blockchain activity, a task that typically requires custom infrastructure and manual reconciliation.

• Lloyds Bank completes UK’s first gilt purchase using tokenized deposits

  • Commentary: British lender Lloyds Banking Group is claiming bragging rights for completing the first U.K. gilt purchase using tokenized deposits, or blockchain representations of fiat currency bank deposits.

  • The transaction involved the company’s Lloyds Bank plc unit issuing tokenized deposits on the Canton Network. Then Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets used the deposits to pay for a tokenized gilt from Archax.

• World’s largest custodial bank BNY to offer tokenized deposits for institutional investors

  • Commentary: BNY has taken its first major step toward tokenization by offering institutional clients the ability to settle bank deposits on a blockchain.

  • The Wall Street giant, with nearly $58 trillion in assets under management, is launching a platform that mirrors client balances on a private blockchain to support faster settlement and liquidity management.

Upcoming Market Events

• January 13 - U.S. CPI

• January 14 - U.S. PPI

• January 28 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Things to Watch This Week (Jan 5 - Jan 9)

• U.S. Dec 2025 Employment Situation report - Jan 9

The U.S. jobs report will likely be the main focus this week, as it could be the first big indication of rate cut bets in 2026. Currently, Fedwatch shows a 17% chance of a move at the late-January meeting but about a 50% probability of a quarter-point cut in March.

Random Musing This Week

Ethereum Updates

Ethereum hasn’t been discussed in quite some time on our weekly publication, but recent headlines have caught our attention. The latest updates show that the ecosystem is entering a new phase of development momentum, both at the protocol level and in on-chain activity.

2026 Upgrades

Earlier this month, Ethereum developers agreed on the name and timing of the network’s second major upgrade scheduled for 2026, settling on “Hegota” as the next milestone in the roadmap. Hegota will follow “Glamsterdam,” the next major upgrade expected to roll out in the first half of 2026, placing Hegota tentatively in the second half of the year. Together, these upgrades reflect a shift toward a faster and more consistent release cycle, moving away from the historical pattern of large annual upgrades.

Glamsterdam is expected to focus on further performance gains and decentralization, while Hegota is positioned as a longer term sustainability upgrade. Despite growing competition at the base layer level, Ethereum continues to dominate activity across stablecoins, real world assets, staking, yield protocols, and a wide range of application verticals that remain EVM compatible.

On-chain Activity

At the same time, Ethereum’s on-chain usage is accelerating. The number of daily transactions on the network recently surged to a new all-time high. According to The Block, the seven day moving average of Ethereum transactions reached 1.87 million on December 31, surpassing the prior peak of 1.61 million recorded in May 2021 during the height of the DeFi and NFT cycle, as well as the more recent high of 1.73 million set in August 2025. Active addresses also ended the year at their highest level since May 2021, reaching 728,904, while Ethereum recorded more than 270,000 new addresses in a single day, the largest increase since early 2018. Analysts attribute this surge in activity to a combination of protocol improvements and institutional engagement. Recent upgrades have materially reduced fees, improved scalability, and helped attract institutional participation through ETFs and real world asset tokenization.

2025 Developments

Ethereum underwent two major upgrades in 2025, Pectra and Fusaka, both of which focused on efficiency and scalability. Pectra expanded blob throughput, introduced account abstraction to improve wallet usability, and increased validator staking limits. Fusaka activated PeerDAS, allowing Ethereum to support higher data availability without increasing strain on nodes. These upgrades, alongside higher gas limits and improvements in zkEVM performance, have significantly lowered costs while reinforcing Ethereum’s rollup centric roadmap.

ETH Technical Analysis

Periods of muted price action often coincide with moments when large allocators quietly position for surprise upside. With protocol development accelerating and network usage reaching new highs, Ethereum may be entering one of those moments. But first, it must show that it can surpass the $3200 level firmly before any further upside can be imagined.

Recap of Top Stories (Dec 29 - Jan 02)

Interesting

• Ethereum’s ‘Hegota’ upgrade slated for late 2026 as devs accelerate roadmap

  • Commentary: Ethereum developers earlier this month agreed on the name and rough timing of the network’s second major upgrade scheduled for 2026, settling on “Hegota” as the next milestone in the blockchain’s development roadmap.

  • Initial discussions around Hegota have focused on Verkle Trees, a newer data structure designed to help Ethereum nodes store and verify large amounts of data more efficiently. If implemented, Verkle Trees could significantly reduce hardware requirements for node operators, improving decentralization by making it easier for more participants to run nodes.

• Grayscale files for first U.S. Bittensor ETP as decentralized AI gains momentum

  • Commentary: Grayscale is aiming to give U.S. investors exposure to Bittensor’s TAO, pushing decentralized artificial intelligence further into mainstream crypto markets.

  • The proposed Grayscale Bittensor Trust, expected to trade under the ticker GTAO, would hold TAO directly if approved, giving investors regulated access to one of the largest tokens associated with decentralized AI. While approval is not guaranteed, the filing underscores how asset managers are increasingly racing to package emerging crypto narratives, including decentralized AI, into regulated products.

• Digital Yuan holdings to earn interest under China’s new framework

  • Commentary: The People’s Bank of China will launch a new digital yuan framework, letting commercial banks pay interest on holdings in a move to incentivize broader adoption of the central bank digital currency.

  • “The future digital yuan will be a modern digital payment and circulation means issued and circulated within the financial system, with technical support and supervision provided by the central bank, possessing the attributes of commercial bank liabilities, based on accounts, compatible with distributed ledger technology, and having the functions of a measure of monetary value, store of value, and cross-border payment,” Lei wrote.

• Sberbank issues Russia’s first crypto-backed loan to bitcoin miner Intelion Data

  • Commentary: Sberbank issued the country’s first bitcoin-backed loan to one of its largest bitcoin miners, calling the transaction a pilot and suggesting it was keen to issue more in the future.

  • Anatoly Popov, Sberbank’s deputy chairman, said the bank already offers clients structured bonds and digital financial assets with investments in bitcoin, ether and cryptocurrency baskets.

• Tokenized silver volumes explode as metal’s price rises to record

  • Commentary: Interest in silver is spilling into tokenized markets, with onchain trading volumes rising in parallel with activity in futures and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as the metal experiences volatility after hitting successive record highs all month.

  • Demand from the solar-power industry continues to rise, with silver consumption tied to photovoltaic manufacturing remaining largely inelastic even after prices more than tripled from 2024 levels. Silver’s onchain rally in parallel to its TradFi counterpart seems to be another datapoint to demonstrate that tokenized versions of assets are a trend that’s here to stay.

• Iran accepts cryptocurrency as payment for advanced weapons

  • Commentary: Mindex, the export center of Iran’s Ministry of Defense, is accepting cryptocurrency payments method for advanced weapons systems as a means of bypassing international sanctions that the country faces.

  • The offer is among the first known instances of a country accepting cryptocurrency as a means of payment for military equipment. The facility for using cryptocurrency as a means of payment in transaction involving sanctioned countries, however, is already well established.

Upcoming Market Events

• January 13 - U.S. CPI

• January 14 - U.S. PPI

• January 28 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Things to Watch This Week (Dec 29 - Jan 2)

• December FOMC meeting minutes - Dec 31

Minutes from the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released this week, offering insight into the Fed’s policy bias heading into the new year. With a light holiday calendar, markets may react more sharply to any signals on rates and inflation.

Random Musing This Week

Uniswap’s UNIfication

Uniswap’s activation of the Fee Switch represents a structural shift in how protocol usage translates into token value. For years, Uniswap processed some of the highest trading volumes in DeFi, yet nearly all protocol-generated fees accrued exclusively to liquidity providers. UNI, meanwhile, remained largely a governance-only asset.

With the Fee Switch turned on, this relationship changes. A portion of swap fees now flows to the protocol and is used to buy back and burn UNI, directly linking network activity to token supply reduction. In effect, higher usage of Uniswap increasingly translates into economic pressure on UNI’s circulating supply.

The proposal also includes a one-time burn of 100 million UNI from the treasury — worth over $600 million at current rates — which can be interpreted as a retrospective adjustment, capturing value that accumulated during years when the Fee Switch remained inactive. While the immediate impact is a sharp reduction in supply, the more important signal is strategic: it establishes a clear framework for how future protocol revenues may be reflected in UNI’s long-term economics.

Taken together, the Fee Switch and the expected burn mechanism suggest that UNI is transitioning from a pure governance token toward an asset that partially reflects cash flows generated by Uniswap’s trading infrastructure. Markets appear to be recognizing this shift.

The divergence is visible in relative performance: UNI has shown resilience compared to AAVE over the same period, as Aave recently faced a failed governance vote following strong community pushback.

Recap of Top Stories (Dec 22 - Dec 26)

Interesting

• Aave slides as community debates over who controls the brand

  • Commentary: Aave governance is debating control over its brand assets, including domains and social media, which are currently managed by third parties.

  • A dispute over who controls the brand and online presence of Aave, a decentralized lending platform, has spilled into governance and procedures. After several days of discussion, Aave founder moved the proposal to a Snapshot vote.

• Crypto M&A hits record $8.6 billion in 2025 as Trump’s regulatory stance spurs deals

  • Commentary: The crypto industry saw a record $8.6 billion in mergers and acquisitions in 2025, up from $2.17 billion in 2024.

  • The surge in M&A activity and public listings, including $14.6 billion raised by 11 crypto firms, was driven in part by a rush for licenses as new compliance rules take hold. As new compliance rules take hold globally, including those around stablecoins and the EU’s MiCA framework, financial institutions are acquiring firms with approved licenses to speed their entry into crypto markets.

• Amplify ETFs targeting stablecoin and tokenization sectors open for trade

  • Commentary: Amplify ETFs has brought to market two new ETFs that give investors targeted exposure to companies and cryptocurrencies behind stablecoins and tokenized assets.

  • The timing of the offerings coincides with regulatory shifts. The U.S. GENIUS Act, signed in July, created a federal framework for stablecoins and also paved the way for institutions to settle tokenized assets using stablecoins by clarifying compliance and audit requirements.

• Crypto exchanges brace for pressure as banks like JPMorgan enter spot trading

  • Commentary: The U.S. federal banking watchdog signaled a regulatory shift that could fundamentally reshape competition in trading services across the United States.

  • That shift became apparent today, after Bloomberg reported that JPMorgan is exploring crypto trading services for institutional investors, marking one of the clearest indications yet that Wall Street banks are preparing to move beyond experimentation and into execution.

• U.S. SEC aids brokers on crypto custody, looks more closely at ATS activity

  • Commentary: The U.S. federal banking watchdog signaled a regulatory shift that could fundamentally reshape competition in trading services across the United States.

  • The guidance confirmed that financial institutions may facilitate so-called “riskless principal” crypto-asset transactions, effectively allowing them to broker crypto trades without holding inventory or taking market risk. “Stand-alone crypto exchanges that lack banking licenses will feel competitive pressure, particularly at the entry-level consumer segment,” Ünsal added

• Tensions over El Salvador’s bitcoin holdings ease as IMF praises economic progress

  • Commentary: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) praised El Salvador’s stronger-than-expected economic growth in a statement on Monday.

  • Despite previous IMF recommendations, El Salvador continues to increase its bitcoin holdings, adding over 1,000 BTC during November’s market downturn. El Salvador’s real GDP growth is projected to reach around 4%, with a positive outlook for 2026.

• EU’s crypto tax reporting starts in January with threat of asset seizure

  • Commentary: The European Union’s newest tax transparency law for digital assets takes effect Jan. 1, marking a shift in how crypto activity faces scrutiny across the bloc.

  • The rules require crypto-asset service providers, including exchanges and brokers, to collect and report detailed information on users and transactions to national tax authorities. Those authorities then share the data across EU member states. That cooperation includes the power to embargo or seize crypto assets linked to unpaid taxes, even when assets or platforms sit outside a user’s home jurisdiction.

Upcoming Market Events

• December 31 - FOMC Minutes

• January 13 - U.S. CPI

• January 14 - U.S. PPI

• January 28 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Things to Watch This Week (Dec 22 - Dec 26)

• Bitcoin and Ethereum CME Expiry - Dec 26

This week, markets are focused on approximately $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options and $3.8 billion worth of Ethereum options approaching expiration at the end of the week. Such a large notional value means that even small price movements around expiry could trigger heightened volatility, especially as traders adjust or unwind their positions. One thing to note is max pain, the strike price at which the maximum number of options would expire worthless, sits at $96,000.

Random Musing This Week

Bitcoin ETF Flows Report

Much has been discussed in recent times about how Bitcoin ETF flows have increasingly become a primary driver of spot price behavior, with periods of strong inflows consistently lifting market liquidity and trend momentum, while even moderate outflows have shown an ability to stall rallies and amplify downside during risk-off conditions.

In today's edition, we highlight Amberdata’s latest report of the Bitcoin ETF ecosystem, modeling how $127 billion in institutional BTC exposure would respond under varying levels of market stress. It quantifies how aggregate cost basis, entity-level thresholds, and behavioral firebreaks interact during potential drawdowns, offering a clear picture of where stress could emerge and how it might propagate.

The analysis identifies $80,000 as the aggregate floor across the 11 ETF issuers, with a “fortress zone” of structural support between $65,000 and $70,000. A decline toward $71,000 would flip a majority of ETF positions negative, marking the point where mechanical, behavioral, and risk-model pressures converge.

A central concentration point emerges around BlackRock’s cost basis at $83,000. Because BlackRock holds 53 percent of ETF BTC, a break below this level materially alters the structure of ETF profitability.

The takeaway from this report is ETF structure remains stable, but its protective buffer has thinned. The vulnerability lies in the combination of compressed cost basis distance and the exposure of recent buyers, whose average cost is ~$115,000 and currently sits materially underwater. The transition from stability to stress will be marked by a shift in whether the market trades closer to key cost-basis thresholds and positioning becomes more sensitive to downside volatility. The coming weeks will hinge on whether flows continue to reflect healthy rotation or begin migrating toward distress.

Recap of Top Stories (Dec 15 - Dec 19)

Interesting

• JPMorgan Launches Tokenized Money Market Fund on Ethereum as Wall Street Moves Onchain

  • Commentary: JPMorgan Chase is rolling out a tokenized money-market fund on Ethereum, pushing deeper into blockchain-based finance amid growing demand from institutional clients. The move marks JPMorgan’s first tokenized money market fund, making it the largest GSIB, or Global Systemically Important Banks, to launch such a vehicle on a public blockchain.
    The fund, dubbed My OnChain Net Yield Fund (MONY), is seeded with $100 million from the bank’s asset management division and is set to open to external, qualified investors this week. JPMorgan built MONY on Kinexys Digital Assets, the bank’s in-house tokenization platform. The product will likely serve as a test case for expanding the bank’s lineup of onchain offerings.

• Ethereum’s ‘Glamsterdam’ upgrade aims to fix MEV fairness

  • Commentary: Ethereum developers, fresh off last month’s successful Fusaka upgrade, which cut down costs for nodes, are already moving full-steam ahead on planning the blockchain’s next major change. Glamsterdam is two simultaneous upgrades taking place on Ethereum’s two core layers. The execution layer, where transaction rules and smart contracts live, will undergo the Amsterdam upgrade, while the consensus layer, which coordinates validators and finalizes blocks, will see an upgrade known as Gloas.

  • At the heart of Glamsterdam is enshrined Proposer-Builder Separation (ePBS), formally tracked as EIP-7732. The proposal would bake into Ethereum’s core protocol a rule that separates nodes who build blocks from those who propose them, preventing any single actor from controlling which transactions are included or how they are ordered.

• SoFi unveils the first bank-issued stablecoin for enterprise payments

  • Commentary: SoFi has launched SoFiUSD, a U.S. dollar stablecoin backed 1:1 by cash held at the Federal Reserve and issued by its FDIC-insured national bank.

  • The coin is issued by SoFi Bank, a nationally chartered and FDIC-insured institution, making it the first U.S. national bank to offer open access to its stablecoin infrastructure. Initially limited to internal use, SoFiUSD is expected to roll out to SoFi members in the coming months as part of a broader payments strategy.

• ECB’s Christine Lagarde shifts focus to digital euro rollout after holding rates

  • Commentary: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the central bank has completed its technical and preparatory work on the digital euro and that it is now up to political institutions to act.

  • While monetary policy holds steady, Lagarde pointed to the digital euro as a strategic priority for Europe’s financial future. “Our ambition is to make sure that in the digital age there is a currency that is the anchor of stability for the financial system,” Christine Lagard said.

• U.S. SEC aids brokers on crypto custody, looks more closely at ATS activity

  • Commentary: A new U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission statement is steering brokers who deal in customers’ crypto on how to handle the assets without running afoul of government supervisors.

  • The agency also released a set of frequently asked questions digging into activity at alternative trading systems that deal with crypto assets.

• Brazilian stock exchange B3 to launch its own tokenization platform and stablecoin

  • Commentary: Brazil’s main stock exchange B3 is planning on deepening its involvement in the cryptocurrency space through the launch of a tokenization platform and its own stablecoin next year.

  • The tokenization platform is set to allow assets to be tokenized and traded on the exchange, with Luiz Masagão, B3’s vice president of products and clients, saying both systems will share the same liquidity pool.

• Ripple expands institutional trading push with TJM partnership

  • Commentary: Ripple said it deepened its relationship with brokerage firm TJM Investments, buying a minority stake that takes it further into the behind-the-scenes infrastructure that institutions use to trade and settle assets.

  • The relationship builds on Ripple’s institutional platform, Ripple Prime, which provides trading, financing and collateral tools to hedge funds, asset managers and family offices.

Upcoming Market Events

• December 26 - BTC (BTCZ25) & ETH (ETHZ25) CME Expiry

• December 31 - FOMC Minutes

• January 28 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Things to Watch This Week (Dec 15 - Dec 19)

• Consumer Price Index - Dec 18

Markets will focus on the U.S. CPI release on the 18th, which will be closely watched for signs that inflation pressures are continuing to ease. The data could shape expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with softer inflation supporting rate-cut hopes while any upside surprise may reinforce a higher-for-longer stance.

Random Musing This Week

Strategy Inc.: From a Bitcoin Proxy to a More Balanced Treasury Model

This month, Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) reported two notable updates: the company remained in the Nasdaq-100 index following the annual reconstitution, and it announced the creation of a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve alongside updated FY2025 guidance.

Nasdaq-100 Retention
Despite ongoing debate over whether Strategy still fits the profile of a traditional technology company, it retained its place in the Nasdaq-100. The decision highlights the firm’s continued market scale and relevance, even as its business model increasingly resembles a Bitcoin treasury vehicle rather than a software-focused enterprise. For passive investors, Strategy remains a rare link between major equity indices and crypto-related exposure.

$1.44 Billion USD Reserve
Earlier this month, Strategy raised approximately $1.44 billion through common stock issuance to establish a dedicated U.S. dollar treasury reserve. The stated goal is to cover preferred dividend and interest obligations for at least 12 months, with an aim to extend coverage to 24 months or more.
The company also disclosed that it may sell Bitcoin or Bitcoin-related derivatives if needed as part of its risk-management framework. While positioned as a contingency, the disclosure signals a clear shift from its previous stance.

From Single-Track to a Dual-Reserve Model
From 2020 through late 2025, Strategy largely followed a single-track approach: issuing equity or convertible debt and deploying most of the proceeds into Bitcoin. The new framework introduces a dual-reserve model, combining long-term Bitcoin holdings with short-term USD liquidity to support cash flow and financial obligations.
This structure materially reduces the risk of forced Bitcoin sales during market downturns, a concern that had grown as Strategy expanded its preferred stock and financing programs. At the same time, the shift carries clear implications for the Bitcoin market: in the near term, capital allocated to USD reserves may limit Strategy’s incremental Bitcoin buying capacity, while over the longer term, stronger liquidity buffers reduce the likelihood that the company becomes a source of distressed selling during periods of market stress.

Recap of Top Stories (Dec 8 - Dec 12)

Interesting

• YouTube Now Allows U.S. Content Creators to Get Paid in PayPal’s Stablecoin: Fortune

  • Commentary: YouTube enabled U.S. content creators to receive their earnings in PayPal’s (PYPL) stablecoin PYUSD, according to a report by Fortune, which cited PayPal’s head of crypto, May Zabaneh.

  • “The move highlights how major tech platforms, including Apple, Airbnb and X, are increasingly exploring stablecoins as a payout rails, allowing companies to avoid directly handling digital assets. The use of PYUSD by YouTube, which is part of Google (GOOG) marks one of the most prominent examples of PayPal’s stablecoin being used for creator monetization, expanding its role beyond backend payments into consumer-facing income streams.

• U.S. Market Structure Bill May Slide to January as Talks Continue Over Several Points

  • Commentary: The U.S. Senate negotiations over a crypto market structure bill — the industry’s top goal in its policy lobbying — hasn’t yet resolved several disagreements as the talks drift toward the holiday break, suggesting real progress may not happen before January.

  • What amounts to a four-sided negotiation involving Senate Democrats, Republicans, the White House and the crypto industry hasn’t come to an accord on such elements as ethics rules for government officials’ involvement with digital assets, whether stablecoins should be tied to yield, and what powers the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may be granted to decide which tokens it governs and treatment of decentralized finance (DeFi).

• Five Crypto Firms Win Initial Approvals as Trust Banks, Including Ripple, Circle, BitGo

  • Commentary: Five digital asset firms have received conditional approvals Friday to become federally chartered trust banks by the Office of the Comptroller of Currency (OCC) in a major step to bring U.S. dollar stablecoin issuers under federal regulatory oversight.

  • The OCC is the only federal agency that charters banks and trusts, and this surge in approvals potentially marks a major turning point in crypto banking.

• Tether’s Bid to Buy Italian Soccer Club Juventus Rejected by Majority Shareholder Exor

  • Commentary: Majority shareholder Exor’s board of directors has unanimously rejected Tether’s binding, all-cash bid to purchase the firm’s 65.4% stake in Juventus, stating in a Saturday press release that it has ‘no intention of selling any of its shares in Juventus to a third party, including but not restricted to El Salvador-based Tether.

  • Tether publicly announced its bid to buy out Exor — the holding company controlled by the Italian Agnelli family — stating that the company had ‘deep admiration and respect’ for the soccer club and planned to invest an additional $1 billion in its growth if the bid was accepted.

• IMF Flags Stablecoins as Source of Risk to Emerging Markets, Experts Say We Aren’t There Yet

  • Commentary: The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) December 2025 report warns that USD-pegged stablecoins could spark currency substitution and capital outflows in vulnerable emerging markets (EMs), undermining local currencies.

  • The global monetary authority argued that the penetration of stablecoins in emerging markets with high inflation and volatile fiat currencies could trigger ‘currency substitution,’ in which locals ditch volatile fiat for USD-pegged tokens, eroding central bank control.

• Pakistan, Binance Sign MOU to Explore Tokenization of $2B in State Assets: Reuters

  • Commentary: Binance is set to explore the tokenization of up to $2 billion in bonds, treasury bills and commodity reserves in Pakistan, Reuters reported on Friday.

  • The memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the world’s largest crypto exchange by trade volume highlights Pakistan’s push to use blockchain technology to unlock liquidity and attract foreign investment as it explores a formal crypto regulatory framework.

Upcoming Market Events

• December 18 - U.S. CPI (Nov)

• December 31 - FOMC Minutes

• January 28 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Things to Watch This Week (Dec 08 - Dec 12)

• FOMC Interest Rate Decision - Dec 10

This week’s FOMC rate decision will be the main focus of attention, with the market overwhelmingly expecting a rate cut that could provide more fuel to the rally. However, with the rate cut now nearly inevitable, the path forward will be even more important in determining how markets play out to end the year.

Random Musing This Week

Bitcoin Technical Analysis Update

Our last analysis of Bitcoin potential price action nearly called an accurate bottom to November’s drop, with our expectation of a similar 30+% decline that occurred in the spring of 2025 being matched. Bitcoin ended up wicking slightly lower, with the final capitulation resulting in a dip just beyond our call of $83-85k as the near-term bottom.

Since then, we’ve established successive higher lows, and we believe we have room for further upside in the mid-term. Targets that we have in mind are the 50-day moving average (purple line), found roughly at $98-99k, and a pivot level at roughly $100k.

However, Bitcoin’s short term trend is still bearish. This week’s FOMC meeting will carry significant weight, especially because the Fed is expected to provide guidance on how they plan to shape monetary policy in the near future. This has the potential to change the Bitcoin price structure and short-term expectation moving forward.

If the Fed unveils a dovish outlook, prices will likely grind higher, but we’ll need to see the reaction to the aforementioned resistance levels laid out. If the 95-100k level serves as resistance, it implies at best a retest of the $83-85k region and at worst, a possible lower low in the near future.

It will be imperative to watch price action as well as ETF flows over the next week or two to see how we end the year. And should $83-85k be lost in that period, our next level of support that we are eyeing will be in the $73-75k range.

Recap of Top Stories (Dec 1 - Dec 5)

Interesting

• Ethereum Activates Fusaka Upgrade, Aiming to Cut Node Costs, Speed Layer-2 Settlements

  • Commentary: Ethereum activated its “Fusaka” upgrade, marking the blockchain’s second major code change of 2025. The update is designed to help Ethereum handle the increasingly large transaction batches coming from the layer-2 networks that settle on top of it.

  • At the center of the upgrade is PeerDAS, a system that lets validators check small slices of data rather than entire “blobs,” reducing both costs and computational load for validators and layer-2 networks. Beyond layer 2s, the upgrade is also expected to lower the barrier for smaller or newer validator operators by cutting down the resources required to run just a few validators.

• Polymarket Launches App With CFTC Green Light in U.S. Return

  • Commentary: Polymarket launched a mobile app in the U.S., offering users a new way to bet on sports events using real money under federal oversight. The app, currently available for iOS, opens access to users on a rolling basis through a waitlist system.

  • This marks a major return for Polymarket in the U.S. after its 2022 run-in with regulators. The platform had previously been barred from operating stateside after the CFTC found it offered unregistered event-based derivatives. That led to a $1.4 million settlement and a pivot toward regulatory compliance.

• Kraken Partners With Deutsche Börse as Europe Looks to Rival Wall Street in Crypto

  • Commentary: Deutsche Börse Group and Kraken announced that they are combining forces, signaling a clear acceleration of institutional cryptocurrency adoption in the Eurozone.

  • By combining Kraken’s proven crypto-native expertise and U.S. market access with the trust and systemic importance of DBG’s regulated derivatives clearing, Eurex, and custody arm, Clearstream, they will build a comprehensive, full-stack bridge designed to capture institutional flow. The new partnership between DBG and Kraken serves as a structural declaration that Europe’s financial core is committed to directly challenging U.S. dominance in the emerging digital capital markets.

• Coinbase, Chainlink Introduce Base-Solana Bridge to Link Ecosystems

  • Commentary: A new bridge connecting Base and the Solana blockchain is now live on mainnet, giving users and developers a way to move assets directly between the two ecosystems. Secured by Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol and Coinbase, the Base-Solana bridge enables trading and usage of Solana-based tokens on decentralized applications built on Base.

  • For users, this means they can now deposit Solana tokens into Base-based decentralized applications that integrate the bridge and begin trading or interacting with them without leaving the Base environment. For developers, it opens up the ability to support native Solana assets natively within their applications.

• French Banking Giant BPCE to Roll Out Crypto Trading for 2M Retail Clients

  • Commentary: French banking group BPCE is set to start offering crypto trading services to retail customers through its Banque Populaire and Caisse d’Épargne apps.

  • Customers of four regional banks, including Banque Populaire Île-de-France and Caisse d’Épargne Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, will be able to buy and sell bitcoin, ether, solana, and USDC directly through their banking apps. The rollout will reach around 2 million customers in the pilot phase, with BPCE planning to expand access to its full 12-million-strong retail base through 2026.

Upcoming Market Events

• December 10 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

• December 18 - U.S. CPI (Nov)

• December 30 - FOMC Minutes

Things to Watch This Week (Nov 24 - Nov 28)

• U.S. Retail Sales - Nov 25

U.S. retail sales data—delayed due to the recent government shutdown—will be released this week, offering an important gauge of consumer strength heading into the holiday season. The report is expected to heavily influence market sentiment as investors reassess spending momentum ahead of Black Friday.

Random Musing This Week

Weekly Recap

This week highlighted a significant contraction across Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) balances, as shown in the Total NAV by DAT chart. Since mid-October, aggregated BTC and ETH NAV held by DAT companies has fallen sharply, pulling back toward levels last seen in early summer.

A major external driver has been the persistent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. BTC ETF saw one of its heaviest multi-day redemption waves since inception, with BlackRock’s IBIT recording its largest single-day outflow on record. These redemptions have removed a crucial institutional bid that previously supported market stability and have become a central factor amplifying volatility throughout the recent downturn.

Additional stress has emerged from concerns surrounding several large DAT-style corporate holders. Questions over balance-sheet durability, declining treasury values, and potential index treatment have weakened sentiment. The combination of ETF outflows and shrinking DAT balances has created thinner liquidity conditions and sharper price reactions across the market.

Macro uncertainty is adding further complexity. The Federal Reserve enters its blackout period ahead of the December FOMC meeting. With the policy decision set for December 10, markets must now interpret the last round of Fed communication without the benefit of fresh inflation data—after the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed it will not publish the next CPI report before the meeting. As a result, the Fed will be setting policy based solely on currently available information, making each statement in the pre-blackout window disproportionately market-moving.

Historically, periods marked by steep treasury drawdowns and negative sentiment have often preceded sharp recoveries, especially when policy expectations tilt toward easing. However, caution remains the dominant stance as the market enters the blackout period.

Recap of Top Stories (Nov 17 - Nov 21)

Interesting

• Bitcoin plunges below $86,000 as US jobs data dampens rate cut hopes

  • Commentary: Bitcoin fell to new local lows on Thursday after the latest U.S. jobs report pointed to lingering inflationary pressures. This marks a low in nearly seven months and a 32% decline from bitcoin’s all-time high record of $126,080 set in October.

  • “BTC slipping below $85.5K comes as stronger-than-expected US jobs data dampens expectations for a December rate cut,” said Vincent Liu, CIO at Kronos Research. “Liquidity remains thin, and short-term profit-taking is amplifying the move. The market is recalibrating risk, reacting to macro data points.”

• Spot bitcoin ETFs see near-record outflows of $903 million

  • Commentary: Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. posted their second-largest daily outflow since their inception. According to data from SoSoValue, the bitcoin funds reported a total daily net outflow of $903.11 million on Thursday, led by outflows from eight ETFs.

  • Thursday’s total net outflows is the highest amount since Feb. 25, when President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement of new trade tariffs triggered a massive sell-off across equity and crypto markets.

• Bitwise spot XRP ETF launches Thursday amid altcoin fund rush

  • Commentary: Bitwise Asset Management announced the launch of its spot XRP exchange-traded fund on the New York Stock Exchange. The ETF will start trading on Thursday under ticker XRP, with a management fee of 0.34% that is waived for the first month on the first $500 million in assets.

  • In the U.S., Bitwise’s fund will be the second spot XRP product following Canary Capital’s XRPC. Canary’s fund has accumulated $276.8 million in net inflows since launching last week. Bitwise previously launched the Bitwise Physical XRP ETP (GXRP) in Europe that provides investors with direct, physically-backed exposure to the cryptocurrency.

• US Senate banking chair eyes vote on crypto market bill next month

  • Commentary: U.S. Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott said Tuesday that he aims to have the committee vote on the crypto market structure bill next month. Scott said the legislation would protect consumers while helping cement America’s dominance as the world’s most powerful economy for the next century. The Republican senator unsuccessfully pushed to pass the bill by September this year, for which he blamed the Democrats.

• Cloudflare global network outage hits multiple crypto front-ends in widespread disruption

  • Commentary: Cloudflare suffered a global network outage on Tuesday that has impacted the front-ends of multiple crypto platforms, including exchanges, block explorers, DeFi protocols, and analytics services.

  • Coinbase and Kraken are among the crypto exchanges impacted by the issue, with blockchain explorer Etherscan, lending platform Aave, and data provider DeFiLlama all experiencing intermittent Cloudflare “500 Internal Server Error” pages. The issue is also impacting major Web2 sites, including Elon Musk’s X.

• Hong Kong launches tokenized deposit pilot with real-value transactions

  • Commentary: Hong Kong has launched the pilot phase of Project Ensemble, testing real-value transactions using tokenized deposits and digital assets, as the city continues its drive to become a crypto hub.

  • The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the de facto central bank, said Thursday that the phase transitions the initiative from a sandbox experiment to live, value-bearing settlement — a move the HKMA described as “pivotal” in Hong Kong’s crypto roadmap.

Upcoming Market Events

• November 28 - CME Expiry

• December 3 - Ethereum Fusaka Mainnet Upgrade

• December 10 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Things to Watch This Week (Nov 17 - Nov 21)

• FOMC Minutes Release - Nov 19

Although the U.S. government shutdown now looks to be behind us, we’re still dealing with a volatile week in crypto markets as investors grapple with declining prices across the board. We’ll be watching for the release of the first batch of government economic data post-shutdown and the publication of the Fed’s meeting minutes, which should give further indications on the potential for what to expect in December. Fed officials have voiced caution about further rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut falling from a near-certainty earlier in October to below 50% today.

Random Musing This Week

Bitcoin Technical Analysis Update

The weakness that began in October for crypto markets is extending into a prolonged downturn, with prices dropping again this morning, albeit not as far as last week’s drop. With the $100k support level now firmly lost, BTC seems to be testing the $92-93k level that played a pivotal level in the run-up that coincided with the election bull market of late 2024-early 2025.

We’re noticing a similar price structure developing, where BTC price rose drastically and created two peaks, only for bullish sentiment exhaustion that resulted in a 30+% decline. Should the same decline occur again, we could see one last downturn leg that takes BTC price as low as $86k. However, if that is as far as BTC price falls, that would still leave BTC within a bullish structure. RSI (bottom indicator) also seems to line up, as the indicator is showing oversold conditions. However, there is still some room to go before it reaches extreme oversold territory.

Although sentiment is currently very bearish, we do see an opportunity to obtain heavily discounted Bitcoin in the coming weeks. We’ll be watching the aforementioned support levels along with RSI ideally forming a bullish divergence, a technical analysis signal that occurs when price reaches a lower low, but the RSI indicator makes a higher low. This pattern suggests that while price is still in a downtrend, the underlying selling momentum is weakening and buying pressure is increasing. It happened in Mar-Apr of 2025 and often foreshadows a potential trend reversal to the upside.

Recap of Top Stories (Nov 10 - Nov 14)

Interesting

• Uniswap Proposes Sweeping ‘UNIfication’ With UNI Burn and Protocol Fee Overhaul

  • Commentary: Uniswap Labs and Uniswap Foundation proposed a new sweeping governance proposal called “UNIfication,” which aims to align incentives across the Uniswap ecosystem and position the protocol as the default exchange for tokenized assets. It would do this by activating protocol fees, burning millions of UNI tokens and consolidating the project’s key teams under a single growth strategy.

  • Under the proposal, the protocol would redirect a portion of trading fees to a UNI burn mechanism and fees from Uniswap’s layer-2 network, Unichain, would also flow into the burn. Other features like Protocol Fee Discount Auctions (PFDA) would allow traders to bid for fee discounts, internalizing MEV (maximal extractable value) and further fueling the burn process. In addition, Uniswap v4 would evolve into an onchain aggregator, collecting fees from external liquidity sources through new “hooks.” Uniswap Labs also proposed a retroactive burn of 100 million UNI from the treasury, which the team claims would equal the amount that might have been burned if protocol fees had been active since launch.

• Bybit Said to Be in Talks to Buy South Korean Exchange Korbit

  • Commentary: Cryptocurrency exchange Bybit is allegedly in talks to acquire Korbit, one of the oldest crypto exchanges in South Korea.

  • A softening of stance by regulators in the country, such as the Korea Financial Intelligence Unit (KoFIU) and Financial Services Commission (FSC), is allowing for more foreign firms to buy local exchanges. Binance recently completed the acquisition of South Korean crypto exchange Gopax, marking its return to the country market after clearing regulatory hurdles spanning a two-year period.

• Harvard Endowment Takes Rare Leap Into Bitcoin With $443M Bet on BlackRock’s IBIT

  • Commentary: Harvard University’s endowment has disclosed a $443 million stake in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, making the fund’s largest known equity position a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund. According to the university’s latest 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the investment fund held 6.8 million shares of IBIT as of the third quarter of 2025. The position accounts for just over 20% of its reported U.S.-listed public equity holdings.

  • For context, Harvard’s entire endowment exceeds $55 billion, meaning the IBIT investment represents less than 1% of total assets. Still, it ranks Harvard among the top 20 holders of the fund.

• Singapore’s Central Bank to Trial Tokenized Bills, Introduce Stablecoin Laws

  • Commentary: The Monetary Authority of Singapore plans to trial tokenized bills settled with wholesale central bank digital currency as the next phase of integrating blockchain-based finance into its economy. The Singapore central bank is also preparing draft legislation for a stablecoin regulatory regime, according to MAS managing director Chia Der Jiun.

  • Der Jiun described how tokenized bank liabilities benefit from current regulatory requirements that “underpin value stability and singleness of money,” which the central bank plans to trial through tokenized government debt backed by wholesale CBDC.

• Czech Central Bank Becomes First Central Bank to Buy Bitcoin

  • Commentary: The Czech National Bank announced the creation of a $1 million test portfolio that includes bitcoin, a USD stablecoin, and a tokenized deposit.

  • Approved by the bank board, the pilot is designed to give the central bank hands-on experience with blockchain-based assets, which it says could reshape how payments and financial systems operate in the future. The total amount invested will not be actively increased, said the bank, and the acquisition was made outside of the bank’s existing international reserves.

• JPMorgan Rolls Out JPM Coin Leveraging Coinbase’s Base

  • Commentary: JPMorgan Chase has officially launched JPM Coin, a digital deposit token for institutional clients, signaling a major step forward as banks deepen their involvement in digital assets. The digital coin represents dollar deposits held at JPMorgan, enabling near-instantaneous transfers using Coinbase’s public blockchain, Base.

  • JPMorgan plans to eventually deploy the token on other blockchains and give clients’ clients access to JPM Coin and expand the token to multiple currencies pending regulatory approval. The coin will even be accepted as collateral on Coinbase, highlighting its growing role in crypto markets.

Upcoming Market Events

• November 19 - FOMC Minute Release

• November 28 - CME Expiry

• December 3 - Ethereum Fusaka Mainnet Upgrade

• December 10 - FOMC Interest Rate Decision